QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL)
As of 2026-11-08 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: SHORT
Conviction high · base case -52% · downside -82% · upside -35%
The market is capitalizing TTM peak AI-server earnings as permanent: TTM revenue of $151.20B and EBITDA of $17.29B compare with FY2021-FY2026 averages of $97.95B and $9.41B. On normalized $9.41B EBITDA, Dell's own 14.2x TTM EV/EBITDA gives about $157/share (-52%), even an 18.1x IBM-like multiple gives about $213 (-35%), and 7.4x gives about $59 (-82%). The AI backlog ($95B) and raised FY27 guide ($192.0B revenue) are real, but at $328.53 the $245.58B EV is 26.1x normalized EBITDA, so the stock needs peak earnings to persist. I would short, using earnings and not FCF because TTM FCF includes loan-book and customer-fund flows.
Key numbers
- Share price: $328.53
- Market cap: $214.20B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Jul 31, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $151.20B
- EV / EBITDA (TTM): 14.2x
- P/E (TTM): 18.8x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
The provided Item 1 Business excerpts do not contain enough text to describe Dell's segments, channels, or unit economics; they show only the heading in the FY2021 and FY2026 10-Ks. The XBRL facts show a cyclical revenue path: $102.30B in FY2023 fell to $88.42B in FY2024 and recovered to $113.54B in FY2026, while operating income rose to $8.15B and net income to common was $5.94B. Cash flow, capex, buybacks, and negative total equity are the main financial features visible in the six-year data.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
DELL's 10-K claims several advantages—end-to-end portfolio, go-to-market, supply chain, global services, and a direct sales channel—but the same filing describes price competition from branded and generic rivals and non-traditional IaaS providers that buy directly from ODMs. The six-year record shows cyclical revenue ($102.30B FY2023 to $88.42B FY2024, then $113.54B FY2026) while operating income rose to $8.15B FY2026; gross profit stayed in a $20.14B-$22.71B range. Net income to common was $5.94B FY2026, but total equity was negative every year FY2022-FY2026, so the sources do not establish durable returns on equity. The filing asserts scale and channel advantages; the sources do not prove a durable moat.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
The latest 10-Q in the provided sources is for the quarter ended 2026-07-31, but its MD&A excerpt is only a section heading; the numeric takeaways come from the same-quarter earnings release dated 2026-09-01. Q2 FY27 revenue was $46,971M, up 58% Y/Y, with operating income $5,385M and diluted EPS $6.34; six-month revenue was $90,813M, up 71%. Management gave numeric Q3 FY27 and full-year FY27 guidance and reported record AI orders and backlog. The provided risk-factor excerpt gives no substantive language, and inventory/cash-balance detail is absent.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
Sign in with a QuantSignals Premium or Gold plan to read every box: each point linked to the SEC filing it came from, the bull and bear case, and the comparables. QS Research powers the signals behind FST, our autonomous trading agent.