QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
DoorDash, Inc. (DASH)
As of 2026-11-08 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction medium · base case none · downside -18% · upside +32%
Section 13's base is right for a SECULAR business: TTM to Sep 30 2026 revenue $17.06B, EBIT $896.0M, EBITDA $2.04B, net income $1.06B and FCF $2.69B, at today's 35.9x EV/EBITDA and $5.98B cash/ST investments (N7,N8,N9,N11,N12,N15,N17,N22). Base case: 35.9x x $2.04B = $73.2B EV; +$5.98B cash = $79.2B equity, about the $79.11B market cap, so base is ~0% (N11,N17,N22,N6). Downside: 20% lower EBITDA ($1.63B) at the same 35.9x = $58.6B EV; +$5.98B = $64.6B equity, -18.4% (same inputs). Upside: 35% higher EBITDA ($2.75B) at 35.9x = $98.9B EV; +$5.98B = $104.8B equity, +32.5%; Q3 2026 records and the $500M+ Instacart synergy target support the growth assumption but not a deep-value margin (S31,S102). The market is not missing the growth; it is paying for it, and the premium multiple plus deal leverage leaves no long/short edge, so watch.
Key numbers
- Share price: $179.67
- Market cap: $79.11B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $17.06B
- EV / EBITDA (TTM): 35.9x
- P/E (TTM): 74.4x
- Price / book: 7.38x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
DoorDash's FY2025 10-K describes a three-brand marketplace business (DoorDash, Wolt, Deliveroo) operating in over 40 countries, monetised by a merchant fee tied to transaction size, consumer delivery-plus-service fees, advertising, memberships and a white-label Commerce Platform — versus the FY2020 10-K, which described a single DoorDash Marketplace plus Drive and Storefront in the United States, Canada and Australia. The filings show the unit count of the business and its reach expanding sharply, and the XBRL history shows revenue compounding from $2.89B (FY2020) to $13.72B (FY2025) with operating income turning from -$436.0M to +$723.0M over the same years. Profitability in FY2025 is supported by operating income of $723.0M rather than by a one-off, with operating cash flow of $2.43B against capex of $257.0M.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
DoorDash in FY2025 looks like a scale business with real cost leverage — operating income swung from -$436.0M in FY2020 to +$723.0M in FY2025 while revenue rose from $2.89B to $13.72B, and FY2025 operating cash flow of $2.43B far outran capex of $257.0M — but its own filings show no lock-in. The 10-K describes intense, fragmented competition against Amazon, Uber Eats, Prosus, Delivery Hero and local incumbents, easy switching and multi-homing by consumers, Dashers and merchants, merchant agreements terminable on 7 or 30 days' notice, and competitive pressure that has forced fee changes which have hurt financial performance. The advantage is scale, brand and capital, not switching costs; the returns depend on that scale holding.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 was a record quarter: revenue was $4.616B (+34% Y/Y; +23% ex-Deliveroo), Marketplace GOV $33.941B (+36%), and Total Orders 993M (+28%). Margins expanded (gross 50.1%, contribution 38.6%, Adjusted EBITDA $1.060B/3.1% of GOV) and Q3 operating cash flow/Free Cash Flow were $994M/$787M. The earnings release also announced a $65.00/share Instacart deal (~$17B equity value) and a $500M+ annual synergy path, while neither provided 10-Q nor release excerpt gives numeric Q4/FY2026 guidance.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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