QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
DOMINION ENERGY, INC (D)
As of 2026-11-11 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Report price $68.37 (close 2026-11-10)
Conclusion: PASS
Conviction medium · base case -2% · downside -24% · upside +8%
Dominion screens cheapest in its peer set at 9.1x TTM EV/EBITDA and 16.0x tax-normalized operating earnings, but the discount is largely an artifact: the $63.01B enterprise value is built on $3.31B of short-term borrowings because long-term borrowings are not tagged at 2026-09-30, and 36% of TTM net income is a $971.0M investment gain that leaves $1.69B of adjusted net income and a 35.6x adjusted P/E, above every peer. On the earnings that actually recur, $3.75B of tax-normalized operating income, the stock is worth roughly what it costs: the peer-median 22.1x anchor gives $66.86 (-2%), a 10% operating shortfall at a multiple 15% below today's gives about $45.9B of equity (-24%), and the FY2026 top-half guide of $3.45-$3.69 against $3.42 in FY2025 at today's 16.0x gives about +8%. With $65B of 2026-2030 capex against $5.67B of operating cash flow and $2.33B of dividends, free cash flow cannot be computed from the tagged data, so I do not value this on EV/EBITDA (capex is well over half of the $6.90B EBITDA); the EBIT/EV earnings yield of 6.9% and the 6.9x-plus operating P/E are the honest compares. What the market is not missing is the merger: an agreed all-stock sale approved on 2026-09-03 caps this revaluation, so the reward/risk is roughly +8% against -24% and this is a pass, not a long.
Key numbers
- Share price: $68.37
- Market cap: $60.14B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $19.35B
- EV / EBITDA (TTM): 9.1x
- P/E (TTM): 22.6x
- Price / book: 2.11x
- Earnings-quality flags (TTM): Investment gains/losses $971.0M (36% of net income)
- P/E, adjusted (TTM): 35.6x
- P/E, operating (tax-normalized) (TTM): 16.0x
- Revenue growth (latest fiscal year): +16.5%
- ROIC (TTM): 11.3%
- WACC: 5.7%
- Economic profit spread: +5.6 pts
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
Dominion Energy is now an electric-focused regulated utility: three primary segments, approximately 4.1 million primarily electric customers, 30.7 GW of generating capacity, and approximately 95% of earnings expected from state-regulated Virginia, North Carolina and South Carolina utility operations at FY2025. The FY2020-to-FY2025 change is the gas-distribution exit to Enbridge and Cove Point sale, leaving Virginia Power’s data-center-heavy service territory as the main growth engine. Growth is planned through approximately $65B of 2026-2030 capex, including CVOW, solar, batteries, gas generation and transmission, with XBRL revenue and operating cash flow rising from FY2020 to the TTM to 2026-09-30.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
Dominion's advantage is a licence, not a brand or a cost edge: Virginia Power holds an exclusive retail franchise and revenue is set by regulators to recover cost plus a return on capital, so the 26.7% FY2025 operating margin ($4.41B on $16.52B revenue, versus 15.0% in 2020) is granted by the rate case, not won in a market. The genuinely competitive pieces are small and explicitly merchant: Millstone has no rate structure providing an ROIC and bids into an RTO on price, and the renewables book is locked in 15-25 year PPAs and 'not currently subject to significant competition'. Returns improved with revenue ($19.35B TTM to Sep 2026, operating income $4.32B) but so does reset risk, since the same regulators can order refunds and rate decreases.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 revenue rose 24% to $5.617B and GAAP EPS was $1.30 vs $1.16, with operating EPS $1.28 vs $1.06. Nine-month GAAP net income fell 13% to $2.121B on $878M of impairment charges, while nine-month operating earnings rose to $2.698B. Guidance is the top half of the 2026 operating EPS range of $3.45-$3.69. The provided 10-Q excerpt and release do not give cash, inventory, buyback or same-store sales data.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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