QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
CHEVRON CORP (CVX)
As of 2026-11-08 · 11/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction medium · base case -26% · downside -36% · upside -1%
Using section 13's EBITDA base, six-year FY2020-FY2025 average EBITDA is $41.53B, ex-trough FY2021-FY2025 is $47.43B and TTM to Sep 30 2026 is $62.90B [S2,N14]. At the company's own 6.9x TTM EV/EBITDA [N28] and $18.88B net debt [N24], those give $41.53B x 6.9 - $18.88B = $267.68B equity / 1,965.42M shares = $136/share (-36%); $47.43B x 6.9 - $18.88B = $308.39B / 1,965.42M = $157/share (-26%); and $62.90B x 6.9 - $18.88B = $415.13B / 1,965.42M = $211/share (-1%) versus $212.61 [N1,N5]. So the price already discounts TTM EBITDA persisting, while on ex-trough cycle-average EBITDA the stock is at 9.2x, above its own 6.9x [S2,N28]. Cash flow is real, with positive operating cash flow every year FY2020-FY2025 and Q3 2026 free cash flow of $12.0B [S24,S30], but the base case is not low enough for a short and not high enough for a long, so I watch.
Key numbers
- Share price: $212.61
- Market cap: $417.87B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $233.33B
- EV / EBITDA (TTM): 6.9x
- P/E (TTM): 15.5x
- Price / book: 2.15x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
Chevron's FY2025 profit is essentially an upstream story: Upstream earned $12,822M versus Downstream $3,022M and All Other -$3,545M, against net income attributable to Chevron of $12,299M, and earnings move with crude prices (Brent averaged $69/bbl in 2025 versus $81 in 2024). Across the six fiscal years in the XBRL data, revenue went $94.47B (FY2020) to a $235.72B peak (FY2022) and back to $184.43B (FY2025), while net income went -$5.54B to $35.47B to $12.30B and operating cash flow stayed positive every year. The business changed mainly by acquisition and portfolio pruning: Hess was consolidated in July 2025 (24% of consolidated total assets at 12/31/2025), 2025 production was 3.7 million boe/d versus 3.083 million boe/d in 2020, and proved reserves were 10.6 billion BOE at year-end 2025 versus 11,134 million BOE at year-end 2020.
- ○ 2. Competitive advantage
Chevron's advantage is scale of assets and cash generation, not pricing power: the 10-K says commodity prices are the single biggest driver of results, and revenue went from $94.47B (FY2020) to $235.72B (FY2022) to $184.43B (FY2025). Operating cash flow stayed positive in every one of those six years ($10.58B in the FY2020 loss year, $49.60B in FY2022, $33.94B in FY2025) even though net income swung from -$5.54B to $35.47B to $12.30B, but computed return on total equity fell from about 22% in FY2022 to about 6.6% in FY2025 as equity grew and earnings shrank. Capex rose every year to $17.35B in FY2025 while D&A reached $20.13B, so this is a large, capital-hungry, price-taking asset base with no brand or licence protection — governments can force contract renegotiations.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 was a price-and-margin quarter: net income attributable to Chevron was $9,924 million ($5.06 diluted) versus $3,539 million ($1.82) in Q3 2025, on sales and other operating revenues of $65,237 million versus $48,169 million. The step-up came from higher crude realizations in Upstream and record U.S. refining throughput with much higher refined-product margins in Downstream, partly offset by -$1.6 billion of unfavorable timing effects in the quarter. Cash was strong (Q3 CFFO $16.0 billion, FCF $12.0 billion) and debt fell, but management flags that current downstream margin levels may not persist. No buyback, inventory or cash-balance figures and no numeric guidance appear in these sources.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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