QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
CoreWeave, Inc. (CRWV)
As of 2026-11-08 · 13/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction low · base case none · downside -49% · upside +42%
At $46.40 the market is paying exactly today's 16.8x EV/EBITDA on TTM EBITDA of $3.76B, so the price embeds neither the $104B backlog at 2026-06-30 nor imminent failure. What the bulls miss is that this EBITDA is not cash: D&A of $3.99B TTM exceeds EBITDA of $3.76B, EBIT is -$231.0M, capex is $20.57B and free cash flow is -$13.65B, with $37.56B of net debt and a further $16.32B of operating lease liabilities ahead of the equity. What the bears miss is that revenue grew 112% in Q2 2026 with about 93% of the increase from existing customers and adjusted EBITDA dollars doubled to $1,510M. On today's multiple the base case is fair value at today's price (0%), a 20% EBITDA shortfall costs about 49% of the equity and a $5.0B EBITDA outcome with $10B more debt is worth about $66 (+43%), so the asymmetry does not clear the long or short bar and this is a watch until capex starts converting to cash.
Key numbers
- Share price: $46.40
- Market cap: $25.57B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Jun 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $7.59B
- EV / EBITDA (TTM): 16.8x
- Price / book: 5.09x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
CoreWeave sells AI-focused cloud capacity and software, mainly through multi-year take-or-pay contracts plus on-demand access. FY2025 revenue was $5.13B with net income to common of -$1.20B, and from FY2023 to FY2025 it scaled from 10 data centers/~70 MW to 43 data centers/>850 MW and RPO to $60.7B. The model is capital-intensive: FY2025 capex was $10.31B and D&A $2.45B, financed primarily with asset-level debt tied to customer contracts plus corporate equity/debt.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
The 10-K describes a purpose-built AI cloud with claimed speed-to-GPU, software/orchestration and TCO advantages, but it also names hyperscalers and smaller cloud providers as competitors and flags intense competition and potential share loss. The financial record in the XBRL data does not show durable operating returns: operating income was -$46.0M in FY2025 after $324.0M in FY2024, and net income to common was negative in FY2023, FY2024 and FY2025 despite revenue rising from $229.0M to $5.13B. Dependence on NVIDIA GPUs, concentrated suppliers and third-party data centers/power further limits the evidence of a durable moat.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
The Q2 2026 10-Q (quarter ended June 30, 2026, filed 2026-08-12) shows revenue of $2,575 million vs $1,212 million in Q2 2025 (+112%), with about 93% of the increase coming from existing customers, but the company swung to a GAAP operating loss of $49 million from $19 million of operating income a year earlier as cost of revenue rose to 34% of revenue from 26% and technology and infrastructure to 59% from 55%. Interest expense, net rose 140% to $640 million, so the net loss widened to $626 million from $290 million even with $125 million of non-operating other income (mostly $109 million of unrealized strategic-investment gains). The balance sheet is large and liquid ($5,524 million cash, $15,553 million total liquidity) but funded by heavy issuance: six months to June 30, 2026 operating cash flow was +$3.7 billion against $14.1 billion of property-and-equipment cash spend and $14.0 billion of financing inflow. Neither the 10-Q nor the same-quarter earnings release gives numeric forward guidance; the release defers guidance to the earnings call.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ✓ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
Sign in with a QuantSignals Premium or Gold plan to read every box: each point linked to the SEC filing it came from, the bull and bear case, and the comparables. QS Research powers the signals behind FST, our autonomous trading agent.