QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (CRWD)
As of 2026-11-08 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction low · base case +0% · downside -11% · upside +11%
CrowdStrike is a real cash machine, with $1.61B TTM free cash flow and a raised FY2027 net new ARR growth guide of 34%, but the equity already trades at 40.37x EV/Sales and a 0.7% FCF yield on $222.09B market cap. At today's own EV/Sales multiple, TTM revenue plus net cash is roughly today's price, FY2026 revenue gives about -10.6%, and FY2027 high-end guidance gives only about +11.2%, so the value case is not +30% and the short case is not -30% with a +25% cap. I do not use Section 13's 20x/51.57x peer cases because they would rerated the multiple without a non-valuation catalyst under the rule. The call is a watch: valuation is stretched and GAAP operating income is still negative, but cash generation and guidance keep the mispricing from being actionable either way.
Key numbers
- Share price: $216.90
- Market cap: $222.09B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Jul 31, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $5.40B
- P/E (TTM): 4935.9x
- Price / book: 43.53x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
CrowdStrike sells SaaS subscriptions to its Falcon platform, with 33 cloud modules in the FY2026 10-K versus 19 in the FY2021 10-K, expanded through land-and-expand and channel partners. Revenue rose from $874.4M in FY2021 to $4.81B in FY2026, while FY2026 operating income was -$293.3M and net income was -$162.5M, against operating cash flow of $1.61B. Dollar-based net retention was 115% as of January 31, 2026 versus 125% as of January 31, 2021. The sources do not provide revenue by segment or channel, current total customer count, or TTM figures.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
CrowdStrike has scale and cash generation but has never produced an operating profit in the six fiscal years shown: revenue went from $874.4M (FY2021) to $4.81B (FY2026) and operating cash flow to $1.61B (FY2026), while operating income was negative in every one of those years and worst in FY2026 at -$293.3M. Management asserts a single-sensor platform advantage and says no competitor has a true equivalent, but the 10-K names no competitor, lists seven competing categories and concedes rivals have greater resources, name recognition and larger customer bases; IP protection is described as a smaller contributor than employee skill and frequent product enhancement. Customers have no renewal obligation on generally one-to-three-year terms, and the July 19 Incident has cost brand and given competitors an opening. On the sources given, the durable advantage is asserted rather than evidenced by margins or returns.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
The Q2 FY2027 10-Q (quarter ended July 31, 2026) shows revenue of $1,470.9M, up 26%, ARR of $5,841.4M, up 25%, with record net new ARR of $332.8M, and margins up slightly (GAAP total gross margin 75% vs 74%). GAAP still produced an operating loss of $33.2M for the quarter and $63.8M for the six months, so the small GAAP net income ($5.3M in the quarter, $33.1M attributable to CrowdStrike for six months) rests on interest income and a non-operating other-income swing, not on operating profit. Cash generation was the strongest item: Q2 record operating cash flow of $530.3M and free cash flow of $377.4M, with cash and equivalents of $5.01B at July 31, 2026. Guidance issued with the release is numeric and raised: FY2027 revenue of $5,991.1-$6,011.1M and net new ARR growth of 34% at the midpoint.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
Sign in with a QuantSignals Premium or Gold plan to read every box: each point linked to the SEC filing it came from, the bull and bear case, and the comparables. QS Research powers the signals behind FST, our autonomous trading agent.