QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
CRH PUBLIC LTD CO (CRH)
As of 2026-11-11 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Report price $96.86 (close 2026-11-10)
Conclusion: PASS
Conviction medium · base case -2% · downside -24% · upside +10%
CRH is a scaled but commodity construction supplier, and the market is not missing much: at $96.86 it trades at 18.1x TTM P/E (N30) and 10.5x EV/EBITDA (N27), while the independent peer-median P/E anchor is 17.8x, giving a base value of $95.25, or -2% (N58). I assume a modest upside re-rate to 20x only because of the dated 2026-10-29 up-to-$6B buyback (S31) and the completed 2026-10-23 Arcosa deal (S5), which gets to about +10.5%; a 10% cut in TTM net income to the FY2026 guide midpoint, priced at a compressed ~15.4x, gives about -23.5%. With ROIC at 9.3% only 1.1 pts above WACC (N44/N45/N46), FCF yield at 3.8% (N31) and quality score 24/100 (N55), the catalysts do not create a deep-value margin of safety; pass.
Key numbers
- Share price: $96.86
- Market cap: $64.43B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $38.96B
- EV / EBITDA (TTM): 10.5x
- P/E (TTM): 18.1x
- FCF yield: 3.8%
- Price / book: 2.58x
- Earnings-quality flags (TTM): none flagged
- EV / FCF (TTM): 32.2x
- Revenue growth (latest fiscal year): +5.3%
- ROIC (TTM): 9.3%
- WACC: 8.2%
- Economic profit spread: +1.1 pts
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
CRH is a scaled building-materials supplier organized in FY2025 into three segments across Americas and International divisions, with materials, road, building/infrastructure and outdoor-living products tied to infrastructure, residential and non-residential construction. FY2025 revenue was $37.45B, operating income $5.44B, net income to common $3.73B and operating cash flow $5.62B; TTM to Sep 2026 revenue was $38.96B, operating income $5.34B, net income to common $3.56B and operating cash flow $5.19B. The latest 10-K shows 38 acquisitions for $4.1B in 2025 and a portfolio of 3,961 locations; the oldest provided annual report is only an Item 4 index, so no earlier segment-level comparison is supported.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
CRH's advantage is scale and local position, not brand pricing power: the 10-K calls it a market leader in many North American, European and Australian construction markets while stating those markets are highly fragmented and face strong competition, and that many products are commodities with strong volume and price competition. The record does show an improving margin trajectory - gross margin up from 33.7% in FY2021 to 36.2% TTM to Sep 2026, operating margin from 11.4% to 14.5% in FY2025 - but TTM operating income ($5.34B) is below FY2025 ($5.44B) on higher revenue ($38.96B vs $37.45B), so the last twelve months show margin give-back, not extension. The moat that reads most durable in the filings is local: heavy, low-value-per-tonne aggregates that cannot be moved far, and scarce reserves plus hard-to-secure licences and permits. Capital intensity is high and the business is openly volume- and price-sensitive.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 revenue rose 3% to $11.4B and Adjusted EBITDA was flat at $2.7B, but net income fell 22% to $1.2B and net margin dropped to 10.4% from 13.7%, largely on $178M of impairments. Nine-month revenue rose 5% to $29.5B and Adjusted EBITDA rose 4% to $5.9B, while net income fell 9%. FY2026 guidance was cut to net income of $3.1-$3.3B and Adjusted EBITDA of $7.8-$8.0B, and CRH authorized a new up-to-$6B buyback through 2030. Net debt was $15.0B at Sep 30, 2026 versus $14.2B at Dec 31, 2025.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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