QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
CORPAY, INC. (CPAY)
As of 2026-11-11 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Report price $459.64 (close 2026-11-10)
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction low · base case +3% · downside -17% · upside +32%
Corpay is a genuinely high-quality payments compounder: 44% GAAP operating margins held across 2023-2026 (S28), 14.2% ROIC against an 8.3% WACC (N45, N46), 25.5% FCF margin (N40) and a 7.23% net buyback yield (N49) that has cut the share count 47.1% in ten years (N7). But the stock at $459.64 already trades at 13.6x EV/EBITDA (N26), 7.18x EV/Sales (N25) and 28.2x EV/FCF (N38) - the top of the payments peer group on sales. The code's P/E cases are +2.6% base to $471.79, -17.4% downside to $379.84 and +32.0% upside to $606.72, about 1.84:1 reward/risk. The base anchor is 33.7x, the peer median P/E (7 peers) (N60), against today's 23.9x headline and 17.9x operating P/E (N29, N37); the downside multiple is 15.2x, 15% below today's operating P/E, and the downside also takes the $1.88/share exposure stress. The balance sheet is the real constraint: $2.32B of buybacks TTM (N18) exceed $1.33B of FCF (N17) while net debt is $8.16B (N22), and the $559.4M of equity stakes (N54) plus the vendor-financing flag (N56) mean part of the revenue growth needs checking before it is capitalized. With the stock 4.1% off its 52-week high (N2), a crowded short (N52) and no dated re-rating catalyst beyond guidance already raised three times (S102), this is a watch - a great business at a full price, not yet a deep-value long.
Key numbers
- Share price: $459.64
- Market cap: $29.40B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $5.23B
- EV / EBITDA (TTM): 13.6x
- P/E (TTM): 23.9x
- FCF yield: 4.5%
- Price / book: 8.92x
- Earnings-quality flags (TTM): none flagged
- P/E, operating (tax-normalized) (TTM): 17.9x
- EV / FCF (TTM): 28.2x
- Revenue growth (latest fiscal year): +13.9%
- ROIC (TTM): 14.2%
- WACC: 8.3%
- Economic profit spread: +5.8 pts
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
Corpay is a global corporate payments company; the latest FY2025 10-K reports four product/vertical segments (Corporate Payments, Vehicle Payments, Lodging Payments, Other), versus the oldest FY2020 10-K's three geographic segments (North America, International, Brazil). It earns revenue primarily from business customers via AP automation, cross-border, virtual/T&E cards, fuel cards/tolls, lodging and other payment programs, sold through digital, direct and partner channels. Consolidated FY2025 revenue was $4.53B with operating income $1.99B, and TTM to 2026-09-30 revenue was $5.23B with operating income $2.29B.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
Corpay claims durable advantages from proprietary networks, global scale, scalable owned technology and diversification, and its GAAP operating margin has held around 44% on growing revenue. But the 10-K lists many competitors across each vertical, and risk factors say the market is highly competitive with larger rivals able to bundle and discount; the computed 2026 risk-factor diff adds AI and stablecoin/blockchain threats. The margin record supports a real advantage, but it is contested and not quantified by segment in the sources.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 revenue was $1,381.9M, up 17.9% year over year and 11% organic, with adjusted EBITDA of $793.8M at a 57.4% margin and adjusted EPS of $7.54. Corpay repurchased 5.25M shares for $1.85B through quarter-end and raised FY2026 guidance to revenue of $5.340-$5.360B and adjusted EPS of $27.90-$28.10. The latest 10-Q says no material risk-factor changes from the 2025 10-K; the supplied excerpts do not give a Sep 30, 2026 cash balance or inventory.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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