QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
COMCAST CORP (CMCSA)
As of 2026-11-09 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: LONG
Conviction medium · base case +75% · downside -22% · upside +155%
At $24.39 (N1) the market pays $50.32B equity and $130.11B EV (N6,N23) for TTM to Sep 30, 2026 EBITDA of $33.54B (N11), i.e. 3.9x EV/EBITDA (N25) and a 39.1% FCF yield (N29), a price that discounts continuing broadband/video losses. I use one base, TTM EBITDA of $33.54B, not a cycle average; the base case at 5.0x EV/EBITDA, a partial re-rate from 3.9x supported by the dated NBCUniversal/Sky separation expected mid-2027 (S29/S5), gives EV $167.7B and equity $87.9B after $79.79B net debt (N21), +74.7%. The downside keeps today's 3.9x on $30.5B EBITDA and gives equity $39.2B, -22.2%; the upside uses the 6.2x peer-low on $33.54B and gives equity $128.2B, +154.7% (S1,N11,N21). The call is long because base +74.7% and downside -22.2% meet the rule; conviction is medium because TTM EBITDA is already below FY2023-FY2025 EBITDA of $36.88B-$38.10B (S2,N11) and subscriber erosion could continue.
Key numbers
- Share price: $24.39
- Market cap: $50.32B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $123.00B
- EV / EBITDA (TTM): 3.9x
- P/E (TTM): 4.4x
- Price / book: 0.54x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
Comcast is a media and technology company with two primary businesses after the January 2, 2026 Versant spin-off: Connectivity & Platforms (residential/business broadband, wireless, video, voice and Sky-branded networks) and Content & Experiences (Media, Studios, Theme Parks). FY2025 XBRL shows $123.71B revenue, $20.67B operating income, $20.00B net income, $33.64B operating cash flow and $11.75B capex; the FY2025 discussion still includes Versant for all periods presented. The oldest FY2020 excerpt frames the company around Cable Communications, NBCUniversal and Sky and heavy investment in Peacock, while the latest 10-K is post-Versant and organized into two primary businesses.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
Sources show a large-scale, cash-generative business but not a clear durable competitive advantage: FY2025 revenue was $123.71B, yet operating income fell to $20.67B from $23.30B in FY2024; the 10-K describes intense competition in broadband, media, studios and theme parks, and the risk-factor diff flags DTC/linear-video disruption. Scale shows up in $33.64B FY2025 operating cash flow and $96.90B total equity, but the filing cites rivals with greater scale and fewer regulatory burdens, so size alone is not evidenced as pricing power. FY2025 net income should be kept separate because pre-tax income of $25.77B exceeded operating income of $20.67B.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 revenue fell 6.1% to $29.3B and Adjusted EBITDA fell 5.8% to $9.1B, but both were flat/up (revenue +0.5%, EBITDA +0.8%) on a pro forma basis that excludes the completed Versant separation (January 2, 2026) and the Sky Germany sale (May 31, 2026); diluted EPS rose 7.2% to $0.97 while Adjusted EPS fell 4.0% to $1.07 and free cash flow fell 14.8% to $4.2B. Connectivity & Platforms is the drag — residential broadband and video customer losses, residential revenue -3.5%, segment Adjusted EBITDA -4.4% and margin down 70 bps — while Content & Experiences grew revenue 6.5% and Adjusted EBITDA 29.3%, with Peacock at $261M Adjusted EBITDA on $1.8B revenue and Theme Parks Adjusted EBITDA down 17.1%. Share repurchases are suspended from Q3 2026 through the proposed NBCUniversal/Sky spin-off, and the nine-month net income drop of 48.7% is largely the prior-year $9.4B pre-tax Hulu gain, not an operating collapse.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
Sign in with a QuantSignals Premium or Gold plan to read every box: each point linked to the SEC filing it came from, the bull and bear case, and the comparables. QS Research powers the signals behind FST, our autonomous trading agent.