QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
Calumet, Inc. /DE (CLMT)
As of 2026-11-10 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction low · base case none · downside -35% · upside +41%
At $36.06 (N1), CLMT trades at 16.1x EV/EBITDA (N24) and 0.99x EV/Sales (N23), with $1.95B net debt (N20) and -$1.14B shareholders' equity (N21), so the equity is a thin levered claim on holding the premium multiple. The business does generate cash: TTM operating cash flow of $341.1M (N14) less capex of $76.0M (N15) gives FCF of $265.1M (N16), an 8.3% FCF yield (N27), against TTM net income of -$193.8M (N13). The offset is that peers trade at 2.0x-6.3x EV/EBITDA and 0.20x-0.83x EV/Sales (S1, N23, N24), so any multiple compression would swamp the equity; using today's 16.1x and $1.95B net debt over 88.09M shares (N5), $250M/$350M/$400M EBITDA gives about $23.6/$41.8/$51.0 per share (-35%/+16%/+41%). I use TTM EBITDA of $317.6M (N12) as the base, which is today's $36.06; the base does not clear +30% and the downside is worse than -25%, so the long rule fails, while the base is not -30% and the upside is above +25%, so the short rule fails. That leaves watch: FCF and deleveraging are real, but the premium multiple and leverage mean I need EBITDA evidence above $400M or a lower entry.
Key numbers
- Share price: $36.06
- Market cap: $3.18B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $5.20B
- EV / EBITDA (TTM): 16.1x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
Calumet runs four reportable segments from twelve North American facilities: FY2025 consolidated sales were $4,137.1M, of which Specialty Products and Solutions was $2,633.0M (63.7%), Montana/Renewables $1,193.1M (28.8%) and Performance Brands $311.0M (7.5%). FY2025 operating income jumped to $108.7M from $8.1M in FY2024 and operating cash flow turned positive at $108.9M from -$46.4M, but net income was still -$33.8M and a $55.8M one-off gain on the Royal Purple industrial asset sale sits inside that year. The big change from the FY2024 10-K to the FY2025 10-K is Montana/Renewables: it swung from (23.2)% of continuing-operations gross profit in 2024 to 83.6% in 2025, and the MaxSAF expansion is now dated and costed.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
The sources do not show a durable competitive advantage. Calumet competes with much larger integrated oil companies and independent refiners across its product lines, and the only stated differentiation is flexibility and customer responsiveness. Profit history is volatile and weak: gross profit and operating income collapsed from FY2023 to FY2024 and recovered only partly in FY2025, with net losses and negative total equity. A claimed crude-to-specialty feedstock cost advantage is commodity-linked and can reverse in extreme demand.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 sales were $1,682.9M, up 56.1%, with gross profit of $543.2M and operating income of $453.7M; volume was roughly flat (-0.9%) while realized prices jumped. Net income was $273.3M but included a $176.7M non-cash RINs benefit and a $113.8M unrealized derivative loss, and nine-month net loss was $(139.6)M; Adjusted EBITDA was $322.0M ($347.2M with tax attributes) and Q3 operating cash flow was $218.5M. Liquidity was $781.8M at Sep 30, 2026, and the company continued debt reduction; the 10-Q reports no material risk-factor changes from the 2025 Annual Report.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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