QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
Coeur Mining, Inc. (CDE)
As of 2026-11-11 · 11/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Report price $15.29 (close 2026-11-10)
Conclusion: PASS
Conviction low · base case +12% · downside -32% · upside +25%
Coeur is a price-taking gold-silver producer whose TTM earnings ($693.0M net income, $1.76B GAAP EBITDA (TTM)) are real but metal-price-fed, and whose 22.5x P/E and 8.2x EV/EBITDA sit mid-peer (HL 25.1x/8.8x, SSRM 22.3x/5.1x) while ROIC of 7.5% trails a 13.7% WACC by 6.2 points. The stock is 44.9% off its 52-week high because Q3 2026 broke the record-Q2 streak and FY2026 guidance was reset to the low end (>$2B adjusted EBITDA / >$1.3B FCF versus $2.3B/$1.5B in August), and the market is now pricing a Q4 rebound of 29% sequential gold and 36% silver growth. On the independent peer-median P/E anchor of 25.1x the base case is $17.06 (+11.6%), the downside at a compressed 19.1x multiple plus the $0.01 a share exposure stress is -32.0%, and the upside at 25.1x on today's earnings is +25.0% — a reward/risk of 0.78 that does not clear the long bar. The $750M buyback ($231M/12.6M shares since mid-May 2026) and $1.17B net cash are real supports, but with no moat, sub-WACC returns and a 7.7% FCF yield, this is a pass at low conviction, not a long.
Key numbers
- Share price: $15.29
- Market cap: $15.62B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $3.60B
- EV / EBITDA (TTM): 8.2x
- P/E (TTM): 22.5x
- FCF yield: 7.7%
- Price / book: 1.50x
- Earnings-quality flags (TTM): none flagged
- EV / FCF (TTM): 12.0x
- Revenue growth (latest fiscal year): +96.4%
- ROIC (TTM): 7.5%
- WACC: 13.7%
- Economic profit spread: -6.2 pts
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
Coeur is a gold-silver producer running five mines — Las Chispas and Palmarejo in Mexico, Rochester in Nevada, Kensington in Alaska and Wharf in South Dakota — plus the Silvertip exploration project in British Columbia, selling doré/bullion to banks, bullion houses and refiners and Kensington concentrate under offtake, with results levered to gold and silver prices. The portfolio changed materially between FY2020 and FY2025 (Las Chispas added in early 2025, Silvertip shifted from a suspended mine to an exploration project, Rochester expansion completed in 2024), and the financial scale changed far more: revenue $785.5M FY2020 → $2.07B FY2025 → $3.60B TTM to 2026-09-30, operating cash flow $148.7M → $886.9M → $1.61B. Operating income went from -$38.7M in FY2023 to $707.0M in FY2025 and $1.07B TTM, with net income $585.9M FY2025 and $693.0M TTM. The pending New Gold arrangement (0.4959 Coeur shares per New Gold share, expected to close in the first half of 2026 per the FY2025 10-K) would add two Canadian mines; these sources do not confirm whether it closed.
- ○ 2. Competitive advantage
Coeur shows no durable competitive advantage: it sells undifferentiated gold and silver at prices it does not set, and the margin record tracks the metal price, not any cost or brand edge — operating income went from -$39.3M in FY2022 and -$38.7M in FY2023 to $707.0M in FY2025 and $1.07B on a TTM basis to 2026-09-30. Growth has been bought: revenue rose from $785.5M (FY2020) to $2.07B (FY2025) to $3.60B TTM while diluted shares went from 242.55M to 614.67M to 932.92M, with no buybacks in any period shown. The only quasi-barriers are mine-level ore bodies and permits, plus the offsetting dependency on third-party smelters and refiners it does not control.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 revenue and adjusted earnings were lower than Q2 2026 on softer prices and volumes, but still sharply higher year over year, with strong free cash flow, $1.2 billion cash and continued buybacks/dividend. Adjusted CAS improved quarter over quarter, helped by lower non-cash PPA inventory expense. Management guides FY2026 production to the low end and expects record FY2026 adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow; the computed risk-factor diff is from the 10-K and flags New Gold deal risks.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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