QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
CAMECO CORP (CCJ)
As of 2026-11-09 · 8/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: SHORT
Conviction low · base case -57% · downside -80% · upside 0%
The market is capitalizing FY2025's peak-cycle EBITDA of C$911.2M (N16) at 48.0x (N29) as if it were recurring, while the company's own 10-year cycle-average 2.9% operating margin (N39) gives normalized operating income of only C$100.0M (N38) and normalized EBITDA of C$393.1M (N38 + N15). At today's 48.0x that normalized EBITDA supports $30.89/share (-56.7%); at the 21.8x comp multiple it supports $14.13 (-80.2%); and even FY2025 EBITDA at today's 48.0x supports only $71.33, essentially today's $71.30 (N1). Q3 2026 already shows the down-cycle risk with a C$2M adjusted net loss, a uranium guidance cut to 19.5-20.5Mlb, and a C$80M nine-month Westinghouse equity loss versus +C$32M in 2025 (S25). The new US$1B ATM dated 2026-11-05 adds dilution risk (S27, S30), so the short does not need a lower multiple; it needs only normalization toward the company's own cycle. Base -56.7%, downside -80.2% and upside 0.0% versus $71.30 (N1) meet the short rule with medium conviction.
Key numbers
- Share price: $71.30
- Market cap: $31.05B
- Latest financial period: FY Dec 2025 to Dec 31, 2025
- Revenue (FY Dec 2025): C$3.48B
- EV / EBITDA (FY Dec 2025): 48.0x
- P/E (FY Dec 2025): 74.4x
- Price / book: 6.35x
The 15 boxes
- ○ 1. Long-form business notes
Only S22 is usable for this section: six fiscal years of CAD XBRL facts, with no business description. The financials show a sharp swing from FY2020 revenue C$1.80B, gross profit C$106.4M, operating loss C$78.7M and net loss C$53.2M to FY2025 revenue C$3.48B, gross profit C$970.3M, operating income C$618.1M and net income C$589.6M. Cash flow and capex expanded over the same period, while diluted shares rose through FY2023 and then were roughly flat. The source does not cover segments, channels, unit economics, history, Q3 2026, TTM or guidance, so those points cannot be made from it.
- ○ 2. Competitive advantage
The only source is FY2020-FY2025 XBRL, so I can judge margin and return history but not the sources of a moat. It shows a deeply cyclical, high-operating-leverage business: operating income went from -C$78.7M in FY2020 and -C$136.2M in FY2021 to C$618.1M in FY2025, with gross profit C$970.3M and operating cash flow C$1.41B in FY2025. That is strong recent scale and cash generation, but the swing and the absence of any source detail on licences, cost position, customers or competitors mean the data do not establish a durable advantage.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 (quarter ended September 30, 2026) was weaker year over year: net earnings of $43 million came with an adjusted net loss of $2 million and adjusted EBITDA of $267 million, while nine-month adjusted EBITDA was $1.2 billion. Uranium segment adjusted EBITDA fell to $179 million in Q3 2026 from $220 million on lower deliveries and higher unit cost of sales, and Westinghouse's 2025 Dukovany work inflated the prior-year comparison. At September 30, 2026 the balance sheet was $860 million cash, $1.0 billion total debt and a $1.0 billion undrawn revolver, and 2026 production and sales guidance were narrowed. A longer-than-usual Key Lake maintenance shutdown cut third-quarter production volume and raised costs, as management had planned.
- ○ 4. Corporate governance
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 9. Insider trading interpretation
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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