QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
CROWN CASTLE INC. (CCI)
As of 2026-11-09 · 11/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction medium · base case +0% · downside -25% · upside +10%
The market is not missing AFFO stability, but it may be underweighting that site rental revenue is still shrinking and that the 21.2x EV/EBITDA multiple is already at the top of the peer range. At today's 21.2x on $2.62B TTM EBITDA, the base value is about $89.0 per share (+0.5%); AMT's 17.6x gives about $66.9 (-25%); a 10% FCF increase ($1.73B to about $1.90B) at an unchanged 4.6% yield gives about $97 (+10%). That is roughly 25% down against 10% up, so risk/reward is negative but does not meet the short rule because the base case is not -30% and the upside is not below +25%. The dated positives, including the 2026-10-21 raised EBITDA/AFFO guide, the Q3 2026 customer term extension and the 2026-10-23 SpaceX site report, can support sentiment, but revenue is still contracting on DISH and Sprint non-renewals; I would watch, not buy or short, until FCF coverage improves or the multiple compresses.
Key numbers
- Share price: $88.60
- Market cap: $37.70B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $4.08B
- EV / EBITDA (TTM): 21.2x
- P/E (TTM): 45.9x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
CCI is a communications-infrastructure provider that leases and operates towers, small cells and fiber for wireless tenants, plus a non-recurring services business. The biggest change from the FY2020 10-K to the latest is the March 2025 agreement to sell the entire Fiber Business to Zayo and EQT, leaving a standalone tower focus and a Feb 2026 plan to cut tower/corporate headcount by about 20%. The XBRL annual table shows revenue of $520.0M in FY2020, $697.0M in FY2022 and $215.0M in FY2025, while operating income stayed $1.86B-$2.42B and operating cash flow $2.79B-$3.13B over FY2020-FY2025.
- ○ 2. Competitive advantage
CCI's advantage is structural, not brand-led: over 40,000 towers concentrated in the top U.S. markets, 98%-99% annual tenant retention, $23.7 billion of contracted future cash inflows as of December 31, 2025, and sustaining capex of about 1% of net revenues — a switching-cost and scale moat, not a pricing-power moat. It is checked by extreme customer concentration (T-Mobile, AT&T and Verizon at roughly 90% of 2025 site rental revenues), by named competitors American Tower and SBA Communications plus tenant self-build and alternative deployments, and now by a DISH default where CCI claims in excess of $3.5 billion. After the $8.5 billion Fiber sale the company is a single-segment pure towers business with FY2025 operating cash flow of $3.06 billion against $182 million of capex. The DATA revenue figures do not reconcile with operating income, so no margin history can be built from the sources given.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 site rental revenue fell 5% to $966 million on identified non-renewals — $61 million from the DISH Terminations and $5 million from Sprint Cancellations — while organic contribution to site rental billings was still $35 million, or 3.5%. Adjusted Site Rental Gross Margin fell the same $46 million as revenue and Adjusted EBITDA fell 6% to $673 million, but AFFO rose 8% to $530 million ($1.24/share, +11%) on lower interest expense and fewer shares after the $1.0 billion Q2 2026 buyback. Reported net income of $283 million was below Q3 2025's $323 million only because last year's quarter carried discontinued-operations income of $277 million and a $231 million loss on disposal; continuing-operations income actually rose 2%. Management raised FY2026 guidance by $25 million at the Adjusted EBITDA midpoint and $5 million at AFFO, with site rental revenues still guided down 4% to $3,875 million.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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