QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
Cerebras Systems Inc. (CBRS)
As of 2026-11-08 · 9/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction low · base case +48% · downside -48% · upside +97%
Section 13 says no revenue or earnings base exists, but S23/S80 give FY2026 core revenue guidance of $880-890M; I use the $885M midpoint and today's EV/Sales of 7.39x (EV $6.54B / $0.885B) as the single base. At that same multiple, a haircut 2x 2027 revenue case is about $133/share (+48%), the zero-operating-value net-cash downside is $46.37 (-48%), and the management 3x 2027 plan is about $176/share (+97%). The market is pricing a binary outcome: 13.2% short interest and a 76.8% drawdown sit against $25.4B RPO and $7.0B net cash, but GAAP losses and customer concentration keep the downside too deep for a long. Watch: the base clears +30%, but the downside is worse than -25%.
Key numbers
- Share price: $89.68
- Market cap: $13.54B
- Price / book: 1.48x
The 15 boxes
- ○ 1. Long-form business notes
- ○ 2. Competitive advantage
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30, 2026) revenue rose 74% year over year to $180.1 million, but the mix flipped: cloud and other services grew 281% to $126.0 million while hardware fell 23% to $54.1 million, and reported revenue was cut by $44.3 million of non-cash customer-warrant amortization. GAAP gross margin fell to 14% from 31% and the operating loss widened to $(477.2) million, mostly $377.0 million of IPO-triggered stock-based compensation; core operating loss was $(33.6) million and core net loss $(6.9) million. Management guides Q3 2026 core revenue of approximately $214-216 million and FY2026 core revenue of $880-890 million against $25.4 billion of remaining performance obligations as of June 30, 2026, funded by $8.6 billion of liquidity.
- ○ 4. Corporate governance
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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