QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
Chubb Ltd (CB)
As of 2026-11-11 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Report price $369.11 (close 2026-11-10)
Conclusion: PASS
Conviction low · base case -27% · downside -32% · upside +10%
The market is not missing a bargain: CB trades at 12.6x TTM P/E and 1.93x book with a 15.3% ROE, a premium to the peer median 9.15x, and the independent anchor is $268.04 (-27%). At today's 12.6x, 10% EPS growth gives only +10% upside, while a -20% earnings shock priced at a 15%-compressed 10.71x multiple gives -32%, so the risk/reward is negative but not enough for a short under the rule. Q3 2026 core operating income fell 2.2% on heavier catastrophe losses, North America Commercial premiums fell 2.7%, and management gives no numeric guidance while flagging more competitive U.S. and London commercial P&C. Pass: a deep-value long needs either the peer-median multiple reflected in the price or evidence of sustained >20% EPS growth, neither of which is cited.
Key numbers
- Share price: $369.11
- Market cap: $141.03B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $61.85B
- P/E (TTM): 12.6x
- Price / book: 1.93x
- Revenue growth (latest fiscal year): +6.5%
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
Chubb is a Swiss-incorporated, Zurich-headquartered global P&C and life insurance/reinsurance group writing business in 54 countries through six segments, with FY2025 consolidated net premiums earned of $53.0B and net income of $10.31B on revenue of $59.40B; the TTM to 2026-09-30 column shows revenue of $61.85B, pre-tax income of $13.79B and net income of $11.23B. Earnings come from three stated sources: P&C underwriting income, investment income, and life segment income. Between the FY2020 10-K and the FY2025 10-K the mix shifted toward overseas/life: NPE went from $33.1B (2020) to $53.0B (2025), equity from $59.44B to $73.76B, and diluted shares from 453.44M to 401.51M, with Huatai moving from a 47.1% stake at end-2020 to an ~87.2% controlling interest at end-2025.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
Chubb's source record shows scale and earnings growth: revenue rose from $35.99B in FY2020 to $59.40B in FY2025 and $61.85B TTM to 2026-09-30, net income from $3.53B to $10.31B and $11.23B TTM, with total equity $73.76B at FY2025. The 10-K claims financial strength, reputation, global presence and local management support competitive pricing and scale efficiencies, but it also lists competition from multinational, large domestic and state-owned insurers, numerous U.S. A&H/life insurers and Chinese asset managers. Distribution runs mainly through independent agents and brokers, and the filing says brokers may promote competitors, so the sources do not establish an exclusive network or switching-cost moat. Reinsurance recoverables and new capital/regulatory/tax risk factors are material constraints.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 was a premium-growth-light, cat-heavy quarter: consolidated net premiums written $15,143 million, up 1.9%, P&C 84.1% combined ratio versus 81.8%, with pre-tax catastrophe losses of $705 million versus $285 million, so P&C underwriting income fell 8.8% to $2,061 million and core operating income was $2,980 million, down 2.2%. Net income attributable to Chubb still rose 1.5% to $2,844 million on record investment income ($1,791 million, up 8.6%) and mark-to-market gains in other income, while consolidated net income fell 12.0% only because the noncontrolling-interest line swung to a $108 million loss from $306 million of income. Nine-month figures are much stronger than the quarter: net income $8,018 million (+12.9%), core operating income $8,597 million (+21.0%), P&C combined ratio 84.0% versus 87.3% on lower catastrophes. Neither the 10-Q nor the earnings release gives numeric guidance, and the 10-Q reports no material change to risk factors.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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