QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
CITIGROUP INC (C)
As of 2026-11-08 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction low · base case none · downside -27% · upside +27%
The market is pricing Citi at 1.03x book and 11.0x TTM earnings for a 9.3% TTM ROE, while management guides to 11-13% near-term RoTCE and 14-15% sustainable, with a $30B buyback and 12% dividend increase as the hard return levers. My base keeps today's 11.0x on TTM net income to common of $17.86B, essentially today's $119.05; the downside puts FY2025's $13.02B earnings on the same 11.0x, about $86.5, -27%. The upside uses 14.0x on unchanged TTM earnings, about $151, +27%, only because the return-target and buyback catalysts support a re-rate. Reward and risk are roughly balanced, and neither the long nor the short rule is met; this is a watch until returns and credit prove the targets.
Key numbers
- Share price: $119.05
- Market cap: $197.05B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $93.11B
- P/E (TTM): 11.0x
- Price / book: 1.03x
The 15 boxes
- ○ 1. Long-form business notes
The only source provided is a six-year XBRL summary (FY2020-FY2025), so the business notes here are limited to the aggregate income statement, capital-return and balance-sheet lines it carries: revenue rose from $75.50B in FY2020 to $85.22B in FY2025, with the sole decline in FY2021 ($71.88B), and FY2025 pre-tax income was $19.83B with net income to common of $13.02B. The visible change across the window is a shift toward much larger buybacks ($13.25B in FY2025 versus $2.47B in FY2024) and a steadily shrinking diluted share count (2,099.0M FY2020 to 1,873.1M FY2025), while operating cash flow swings sign year to year, which is consistent with a balance-sheet-driven lender rather than an operating cash flow business. Nothing in the source describes segments, channels, unit economics, or any quarter of FY2026, so those parts of the template cannot be filled from these materials.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
Sources show no proven durable advantage: Citi describes financial services as highly competitive and lists brand, distribution, product and employee/cost factors as determinants rather than evidence of a moat. Absolute scale is large — FY2025 revenue $85.22B and total equity $212.29B — but net income to common ranged from $7.85B in FY2023 to $20.76B in FY2021 and was $13.02B in FY2025, so the return record is cyclical rather than consistently superior. The 10-K names competitor categories, not individual peers or market shares.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 revenue was $23.845B, up 8% YoY but down 4% QoQ; net income was $5.245B, up 40% (17% excluding the Q3 2025 Banamex goodwill impairment), and diluted EPS was $2.85. NII rose 14% to $16.982B while NIR fell 4% to $6.863B; expenses were $13.952B, down 2% reported and up 3% excluding the prior-year notable item. CET1 was 12.8%, Citi returned $4.1B to common shareholders, and loans and deposits grew double digits. Services and Wealth led segment growth while USCC net income fell 8%; the release gives return targets of 11-13% near-term and 14-15% sustainable.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ✓ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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