QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
Blackstone Inc. (BX)
As of 2026-11-08 · 11/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction medium · base case -26% · downside -56% · upside 0%
The market is capitalizing TTM earnings at 25.2x, but BX's earnings are cyclical: FY2021 revenue fell 62% into FY2022 and pre-tax income fell 74%, and the six-year average net income is $2.64B ($3.52/share) versus TTM $3.56B ($4.74/share). At the company's own 25.2x, normalized EPS values the shares at about $88.6 (-26%), while a repeat of FY2022-FY2023 average EPS ($2.09) at the same multiple gives $52.7 (-56%) and TTM EPS held at the same multiple gives about $119.4 (0%). I do not adopt section 13's $137.4 upside because it uses KKR's 29.0x; a peer multiple is not a non-valuation catalyst, so all three cases stay at BX's 25.2x. The recurring perpetual-capital and private-wealth fee base is real, but it has not stopped fee and realization earnings from swinging, and at $119.50 the stock is a watch, not a short: the base case is -26%, short of the -30% threshold.
Key numbers
- Share price: $119.50
- Market cap: $89.76B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $16.08B
- P/E (TTM): 25.2x
- Price / book: 10.16x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
Blackstone at December 31, 2025 is a fee-driven alternative asset manager with more than $1.3 trillion of Total Assets Under Management spread across four segments — Real Estate ($319.3B), Private Equity ($416.4B), Credit & Insurance ($443.0B) and Multi-Asset Investing ($96.2B) — plus a fast-growing perpetual-capital and private-wealth layer that makes management fees recurring rather than realization-dependent. Revenue and net income are highly cyclical: $22.58B revenue and $5.86B net income in FY2021 collapsed to $8.52B/$1.75B in FY2022 and $8.02B/$1.39B in FY2023, then rebuilt to $13.23B/$2.78B in FY2024 and $14.45B/$3.02B in FY2025. Since the FY2020 10-K the company converted from a limited partnership to a corporation and reclassified its share classes, and the listed segments changed, with Multi-Asset Investing appearing in the latest report where Hedge Fund Solutions appeared in the oldest. Because earnings swing with realizations, the business is managed, and dividends are paid, off Distributable Earnings rather than GAAP net income.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
The filing describes an industry that is 'intensely competitive' and lists price among the ways Blackstone competes, and its own six-year record shows cyclical rather than durable earning power: revenue $22.58B (FY2021) to $8.02B (FY2023) to $14.45B (FY2025), pre-tax income $13.56B to $2.96B to $7.17B. The one moat-like asset the 10-K identifies is the recurring fee base from perpetual capital vehicles, which it calls 'a significant and growing portion of our overall revenues', layered on plain scale ($14.45B FY2025 revenue vs $6.10B FY2020). Nothing in the sources evidences pricing power or switching costs; the risk-factor diff shows the fight moving into the individual-investor channel.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 total revenues slipped 1% YoY to $3.063 billion while nine-month revenues rose 16%, and management/advisory fees grew 6% in the quarter. Fee-related earnings were $1.6 billion ($1.26/share) in Q3 2026, distributable earnings were $1.7 billion ($1.32/share), AUM reached $1.368 trillion (+10% YoY), and Blackstone repurchased 0.2 million shares while declaring a $1.12 dividend. The 10-Q risk-factor section points back to the FY2025 10-K, and neither the 10-Q excerpt nor the 3Q26 earnings release gives numeric guidance.
- ○ 4. Corporate governance
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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