QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
Bitdeer Technologies Group (BTDR)
As of 2026-11-10 · 10/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction low · base case none · downside -31% · upside +49%
The market is pricing BTDR at $6.61, near its 52-week low, on the Q3 2026 gross-margin collapse (3.4%) and cash burn, not on the record $320.7M revenue or the ~$2.9B AI Cloud backlog. On the FY2025 base used in section 13, today's 5.55x EV/Sales gives EV $3.44B, less $329.9M net debt = $3.11B equity, or $6.61/share, so the base case is flat; the 4.0x downside gives ~$4.57 (-31%) and the 8.0x upside ~$9.84 (+49%). The upside multiple is rerated on the dated Tydal 16-year ~$4.7B lease and phase-1 60.5MW Q4 2026 delivery, while the downside reflects the dated Q3 2026 filing showing $10.8M gross profit and cash down to $213.7M. Risk/reward is ~1.6:1, not enough under the rule, so this is a watch, not a long.
Key numbers
- Share price: $6.61
- Market cap: $3.11B
- Latest financial period: FY Dec 2025 to Dec 31, 2025
- Revenue (FY Dec 2025): $620.3M
- P/E (FY Dec 2025): 47.5x
- Price / book: 3.59x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
Bitdeer is a Singapore-headquartered AI and Bitcoin mining infrastructure company whose FY2025 revenue was US$620.3m, led by self-mining at US$396.0m, with mining-rig sales about 17.5% of FY2025 total, plus cloud hash rate, hosting and a small but growing AI cloud/colocation business at US$6.8m FY2025. It was separated from Bitmain in January 2021, spun off BTC.com Pool in April 2021, and listed on Nasdaq after the April 2023 business combination. From the oldest 20-F in the set, dated 2023-04-19, to the latest 20-F dated 2026-04-30, the company moved from three mining business lines and 5 datacenters/775MW as of Dec 31, 2022 to five lines including SEALMINER rig sales and AI infrastructure, 10 datacenters/1,744.0MW as of March 31, 2026, and 78.1 EH/s under management.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
No durable competitive advantage is evident from these sources: S25 describes intense competition from larger, better-capitalized rivals across mining, ASIC/rigs, AI infrastructure, hosting and cloud hash rate, while S28 shows gross profit falling from $83.3M in FY2022 to $61.0M in FY2025 even as revenue rose from $333.3M to $620.3M. Bitdeer claims first-mover status in mining datacenter/rig management and owns a patent/trademark portfolio, but the sources do not show those translating into pricing power or superior returns. Profitability is commodity-linked and volatile: S26 says results are highly correlated to crypto prices and unhedged in FY2023-FY2025, and large derivative fair-value swings sit alongside the FY2024 loss and FY2025 profit.
- ○ 3. 10-Q takeaways
The cited latest quarterly disclosure is the Q3 2026 6-K results release, not a 10-Q. Q3 2026 revenue was a record US$320.7 million, up 89% y/y, but gross profit fell to US$10.8 million with a 3.4% gross margin, and net loss widened to US$125.5 million, including a US$54.6 million non-cash fair-value loss on the digital assets loan. Adjusted EBITDA rose 173% to US$69.6 million; cash was US$213.7 million at September 30, 2026, digital assets and receivables were US$387.0 million, and AI Cloud backlog was approximately US$2.9 billion. Management named priorities of delivering Tydal, completing financings and bringing Malaysia online.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 9. Insider trading interpretation
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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