QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
BRUKER CORP (BRKRP)
As of 2026-11-09 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: SHORT
Conviction high · base case -67% · downside -88% · upside -43%
At TTM revenue $3.51B (N10), net debt $1.71B (N25) and 151.72M shares (N4), 6.84x peer-median EV/Sales (S1) gives $24.0B EV, $22.3B equity, ~$147/share (-67%); 2.78x lowest peer gives ~$53/share (-88%); 11.56x TXG gives ~$256/share (-43%). Today's $446.63 (N1) is 19.77x EV/Sales (N28) and 437.8x EV/EBITDA (N29) on TTM EBIT -$69.8M (N12) and net income to common -$167.3M (N15), so the market is paying a peer-premium for a roll-up with stalled organic growth. I re-rate lower on the dated 2026-11-04 FY26 guidance (organic 1-2%) and the 2026-11-05 10-Q ($174.5M Q3 goodwill impairment) [S30,S28]; the base, downside and upside all sit below today. Short.
Key numbers
- Share price: $446.63
- Market cap: $67.76B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $3.51B
- EV / EBITDA (TTM): 437.8x
- Price / book: 27.58x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
Bruker sells high-performance scientific instruments (magnetic resonance, mass spectrometry, chromatography, X-ray, microscopy, metrology, molecular spectroscopy) plus aftermarket service, software and consumables, organised in FY2025 into four reportable segments: BSI BioSpin, BSI CALID, BSI NANO and BEST. It is a roll-up built by acquisition (Bruker Optics 2006, BioSpin 2008, ELITechGroup 2024, Recipe and AST Revolution in 2025) and has grown revenue from $1.99B in FY2020 to $3.44B in FY2025, but operating income fell from $248.3M to $68.2M and net income to common went to -$22.5M over the same years, with amortization of intangibles up from $35.8M to $121.2M and operating cash flow down from $332.2M to $134.1M. Reporting structure changed between the two 10-Ks: FY2020 aggregated BioSpin and CALID into a single BSI Life Science reportable segment (three reportable segments), while the FY2025 10-K reports them separately (four reportable segments).
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
The sources show no durable advantage: Bruker competes in multiple highly fragmented instrument markets against substantially larger rivals (Thermo Fisher, Danaher, Agilent, Waters, Shimadzu, Hitachi, JEOL, Oxford Instruments, Rigaku), and the return record has deteriorated sharply - operating income fell from $436.9M in FY2023 to $253.1M in FY2024 and $68.2M in FY2025, with net income to common of -$22.5M in FY2025. Gross profit fell to $1.58B in FY2025 from $1.65B in FY2024 even as revenue rose to $3.44B from $3.37B, and the 10-K attributes reduced gross and operating margins in part to tariffs adopted in 2025. Operating cash flow also fell to $134.1M in FY2025 from $251.3M in FY2024, so the margin and cash-return history reads as cyclical/eroding rather than franchise-like.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 (quarter ended 2026-09-30) revenue was $874.0 million, up 1.6% reported and 0.7% organically, but GAAP results were swamped by a $174.5 million non-cash goodwill impairment in BSI NANO, producing a $(91.0) million operating loss and $(0.81) GAAP diluted loss per share while non-GAAP operating margin rose 400 bps to 16.3% and non-GAAP diluted EPS rose 24.4% to $0.56. Cash generation swung positive — $118.2 million of operating cash flow in Q3 2026 versus $(33.2) million, and $37.5 million of nine-month free cash flow versus $(163.9) million — with $119.7 million of cash at quarter-end against $1.7 billion total debt. Management reconfirmed FY26 organic growth of 1% to 2% and non-GAAP EPS of $2.10 to $2.15 on revenue of $3.52 to $3.56 billion, and cited a fifth consecutive quarter of BSI book-to-bill above one.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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