QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK)
As of 2026-11-08 · 11/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction low · base case +5% · downside -20% · upside +30%
Section 13's FY Sep 2025 base is 13 months old, so I use the newest company guidance, FY2026 (ending 2026-09-30) adjusted EBITDA of at least €710M, for all three cases and hold today's 10.7x EV/EBITDA multiple. At 2026-06-30 net debt of €1,227.0M and Q3 FY2026 weighted 181.5M shares, that gives about $39.10/share (+4.8%); a 20% EBITDA miss gives about $29.78 (-20.2%), and 20% EBITDA growth gives about $48.43 (+29.8%). The market is not missing the brand quality or the 15% constant-currency growth guide; it is already paying 18.1x P/E and 3.39x EV/Sales, above every named peer on P/E. With the base only modestly above today's price and the long rule failed on the base, this is a watch, not a long or short.
Key numbers
- Share price: $37.32
- Market cap: $7.01B
- Latest financial period: FY Sep 2025 to Sep 30, 2025
- Revenue (FY Sep 2025): €2.10B
- EV / EBITDA (FY Sep 2025): 10.7x
- P/E (FY Sep 2025): 18.1x
- Price / book: 2.31x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
BIRKENSTOCK sells footwear through two channels (B2B and DTC) in three regions (Americas, Europe, APMA), making 100% of its footbeds in Germany; revenue grew from €1.24B in FY2022 to €2.10B in FY2025 and net income from €187.1M to €348.3M (all EUR, fiscal years ended 30 September). Between the oldest 20-F here (dated 2024-01-18, FY2023) and the newest (dated 2025-12-18), the capex story shifted from buying the Arouca component plant and building Pasewalk/Görlitz to a larger programme including the Wittichenau factory (expected operational by end of fiscal 2027) plus the October 2025 purchase of its long-standing Australian distributor. FY2025 operating cash flow was €384.3M against €76.7M capex, with €329.1M cash and €2.72B total equity at 2025-09-30. These sources carry no share price, market cap or any period after FY2025, so no current valuation can be formed from them.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
Birkenstock shows a brand/IP-led advantage: FY2025 (year ended 2025-09-30) gross margin was 59.0% (computed from S28), operating income was €549.5M, and DTC was 38% of revenue, while owned German/Portugal plants and trademark enforcement reinforce quality and brand control. But the sources do not prove durability: competition is fragmented and intense, Asian outsourcers may price more aggressively, and counterfeits/knock-offs attack the brand. The financial read stops at FY2025; these sources contain no later quarterly figures, so a current-scale valuation would be out of date.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
The latest quarterly filing is the Q3 FY2026 6-K (quarter ended June 30, 2026, filed August 13, 2026): revenue rose 13% reported / 15% constant currency to €719.5m, adjusted EBITDA €242.5m at a 33.7% margin (down 70 bp), and adjusted net profit €133.6m (+15%) / adjusted EPS €0.74 (+19%), while IFRS net profit fell 15% to €109.6m on €22m of non-recurring, non-cash charges from the accelerated share repurchase and senior-note refinancing. A €230m ASR completed June 30, 2026 cut shares outstanding by 6 million and lifted net leverage to 1.8x from 1.5x, with cash at €693.6m. The only forward numbers given are cost headwinds: tariffs ~70 bp and FX ~120 bp on FY2026 margins. No FY2026 actuals exist yet — the November 3, 2026 release says Q4 and full FY2026 results come on December 10, 2026.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 9. Insider trading interpretation
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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