QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
Bloom Energy Corp (BE)
As of 2026-11-08 · 10/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: SHORT
Conviction medium · base case -40% · downside -66% · upside +25%
The market is still paying 97.9x TTM P/E and 82.4x TTM EV/EBITDA for a business whose FY2020-FY2025 record had operating losses through FY2023 and a FY2025 net loss of -$87.1M, so the TTM profit is a one-year turn, not yet a proven earnings base. Q3 2026 was strong — revenue $1,235.8M, +138.1%, GAAP operating income $225.4M, guidance raised to $4.4B-$4.6B — but Q3 2026 free cash flow was negative $181M on a working-capital build, and the 10-Q flags data-center opposition, harder financing and tariffs. At 8.0x TTM EV/Sales, EV = 8.0 x $3.83B = $30.6B; equity ≈ $30.6B after -$7.3M net debt; /295.66M shares = about $104, or -40% from $173.24. The downside at 4.5x TTM EV/Sales is $17.2B EV, about $58/share, -66%, while the current-multiple upside on 25% higher revenue is 13.37 x $4.79B = $64.0B EV, about $217/share, +25%; I would short.
Key numbers
- Share price: $173.24
- Market cap: $51.22B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $3.83B
- EV / EBITDA (TTM): 82.4x
- P/E (TTM): 97.9x
- Price / book: 26.50x
The 15 boxes
- ○ 1. Long-form business notes
Bloom Energy's FY2020 10-K describes an integrated behind-the-meter solid-oxide fuel-cell solution sold to large enterprises, through U.S. financing partners, and via a Korean distributor; the product is modular in 50 kW modules and scalable from hundreds of kW to tens of MW. The XBRL record shows revenue rising from $731.2M in FY2020 to $2.00B in FY2025 and gross profit from $165.8M to $587.4M, with operating income turning positive in FY2024 and FY2025. Net income remained negative in every year shown, including -$87.1M in FY2025 despite +$72.8M operating income, while operating cash flow turned positive in FY2024-FY2025.
- ○ 2. Competitive advantage
The supplied financials show improving scale and gross profit—FY2025 revenue $2.00B and gross profit $587.4M—but not a proven durable advantage: FY2025 operating income was only $72.8M and net income was -$87.1M after net losses in every year FY2020-FY2025. Cash flow turned positive in FY2024-FY2025, but the record is short and the source names no competitors or qualitative moat such as brand, network, switching costs or licenses. On this evidence, the advantage is unproven rather than durable.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
The Q3 2026 10-Q (quarter ended 2026-09-30, filed 2026-10-22) shows record revenue of $1,235.8M, up 138.1% year over year, with nine-month revenue of $3,052.3M (+144.9%), almost all of it product revenue ($1,073.6M in the quarter, +179.4%). Gross margin was 33.8% GAAP / 34.5% non-GAAP, operating income $225.4M, and management raised full-year 2026 guidance to $4.4B-$4.6B revenue, ~34% non-GAAP gross margin, $960M-$1,030M non-GAAP operating income and $3.10-$3.40 non-GAAP EPS. Working capital absorbed cash — inventory to $927.7M from $643.3M, contract assets to $792.8M from $178.9M, receivables to $634.7M from $371.8M — yet nine-month operating cash flow was +$272.9M versus -$304.1M a year earlier. Cash was $2,486.7M with recourse debt down to $2,473.5M and the revolver undrawn; no share repurchase was disclosed.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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