QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
BIODESIX INC (BDSX)
As of 2026-11-09 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction low · base case 0% · downside -27% · upside +95%
At $8.53 the market is capitalizing TTM revenue of $105.2M at the given 1.10x EV/Sales, and my base case at that same multiple gives $115.7M EV less $21.6M net debt = $94.1M equity, or $8.49/share, roughly flat. The downside uses 0.86x on the same revenue: 0.86 x $105.2M = $90.5M EV, less $21.6M = $68.9M, or $6.21/share (-27%); charging the $25.3M of leases takes it to about $3.93 (-54%). The upside uses 1.96x: 1.96 x $105.2M = $206.2M EV, less $21.6M = $184.6M, or $16.65/share (+95%), but that requires a re-rate supported only by the dated Schuler insider buying (S95) and the December 2026 RSNA radiomics data (S56), not by current earnings. The business is still burning cash with TTM FCF of -$19.1M and has no positive cycle earnings to normalize, so this is a watch: the sales multiple is low, but the cash-flow and dilution evidence do not meet a long, and the insider bid plus cheap sales multiple do not meet a short.
Key numbers
- Share price: $8.53
- Market cap: $94.6M
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $105.2M
- Price / book: 10.90x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
Biodesix sells two things: blood-based lung diagnostic tests (FY2025 Lung Diagnostic Testing revenue $79.2M from 62,600 tests, up 22% and 15%) and Development Services to biopharma and academic clients ($9.3M, up 41%), for total FY2025 revenue of $88.5M. The record is genuinely cyclical: revenue was $45.6M in FY2020 — $28.3M of which was COVID-19 testing — fell to $38.2M in FY2022, then climbed to $88.5M in FY2025, while operating losses narrowed from -$50.6M (FY2022) to -$27.9M (FY2025) but operating cash flow was still -$23.3M in FY2025 and total equity was -$2.5M. The company changed shape between the oldest and newest annual report here: the FY2020 report describes a single segment with six marketed tests including a COVID-19 program, the FY2025 report two revenue lines and five lung blood-based tests, three of them carrying ADLT reimbursement status.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
Biodesix has niche claims — no known commercial blood-based nodule test and no known VeriStrat competitor — plus CLIA/CAP laboratory certifications, but the financial record shows no durable cost or scale advantage: operating income, net income and operating cash flow were negative every fiscal year 2020-2025. Competition is explicit in genomic tests and development services, and key inputs are sole-sourced. On these sources, the moat is narrow and unproven by margins or returns.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 revenue rose 10% to $24.0 million on Diagnostic Testing +16% and 24% higher test volume, offset by Development Services -49%; gross margin held at 81%, but net loss was $8.0 million and Adjusted EBITDA loss $3.9 million. Cash was $28.4 million at September 30, 2026, down $1.6 million from June 30, 2026 despite $6.3 million net ATM proceeds; nine-month operating cash use was $19.0 million. FY2026 guidance is $101 million-$103 million revenue and approximately 80% gross margin. The sources do not give TTM figures, inventory, comparable sales, or buybacks.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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