QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ (BAC)
As of 2026-11-08 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction medium · base case none · downside -20% · upside +7%
At $49.42 the market pays 11.1x TTM net income to common of $30.76B and 1.15x book for a 10.4% return on common equity — the lowest P/E in the nine-company table, just under WFC's 11.5x, on earnings that are up from FY2023's $24.66B with Q3 2026 revenue +3%, NII +8% and average loans +6%. The discount has a named cause: a $1.2B non-tax-deductible BSA/AML settlement, securities class actions with a 2026-12-15 lead-plaintiff deadline and a reported call for a DOJ criminal probe, which I treat as an unresolved overhang rather than a permanent impairment, since adjusted EPS of $1.08 and adjusted ROTCE of 14.9% show the operating bank earning through it. Priced at today's 11.1x, the cases are 0% base (TTM $30.76B at 11.1x = today's $341.01B), -19.7% downside (FY2023's $24.66B at 11.1x = $273.7B) and +7.2% upside ($31.96B ex-charge grown 3% at 11.1x = $365.4B) — essentially all of the return would have to come from the multiple, and a peer multiple is not a catalyst I may capitalize. Section 13's +24% upside adopts JPM's 13.8x, which is a valuation argument rather than an event, so I keep 11.1x and call this a watch: the earnings power is real, the re-rate trigger is not yet priceable.
Key numbers
- Share price: $49.42
- Market cap: $341.01B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $120.16B
- P/E (TTM): 11.1x
- Price / book: 1.15x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
Bank of America's provided filings describe a large bank that earns net interest income and noninterest income from lending/deposits, trading and market-making, investment banking/underwriting, and wealth/advisory/AUM fees; the excerpts do not give segment revenue or unit economics. In the XBRL data, revenue rose from $85.53B in FY2020 to $113.10B in FY2025 and net income to common from $16.47B to $29.05B, while diluted shares fell from 8,796.90M to 7,680.90M. The oldest excerpt (FY2020 10-K, dated 2021-02-24) starts with Coronavirus Disease risk; the latest excerpt (dated 2026-02-25) discusses digital assets/stablecoin and tariffs but still centers on market, liquidity, credit and geopolitical risk.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
The sources show scale and earnings growth, not a named durable moat: BAC's 2025 10-K describes a highly competitive field of bank and nonbank rivals and says competition turns on service, pricing, products, lending limits, technology, reputation and relationships. Its scale is visible in a U.S. deposit share above 10% at June 30, 2025 and a 3.0% G-SIB surcharge, but those come with regulatory capital constraints. FY2020-FY2025 revenue rose from $85.53B to $113.10B and net income to common from $16.47B to $29.05B, while FY2025 buybacks were $21.43B; the sources do not give net interest margin, ROE, ROTCE, efficiency ratio or price/book.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 revenue rose 3% YoY to $30.0B as NII rose 8% to $16.4B, but reported net income fell to $6.9B and diluted EPS to $0.91 after a $1.2B non-tax-deductible regulatory settlement charge; adjusted EPS was $1.08. Credit was stable with provision of $1.3B and net charge-offs of $1.3B, while average loans grew 6%. Capital remains above requirements at CET1 10.9%, though down YoY, and the company returned $8.3B to shareholders in Q3 2026.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
Sign in with a QuantSignals Premium or Gold plan to read every box: each point linked to the SEC filing it came from, the bull and bear case, and the comparables. QS Research powers the signals behind FST, our autonomous trading agent.