QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA)
As of 2026-11-08 · 11/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction low · base case +0% · downside -25% · upside +21%
At $109.45 (2026-11-06), BABA trades at 16.6x FY Mar 2026 EV/EBITDA (N28) and 16.0x P/E on net income to common (N31), but the operating base is depressed: FY Mar 2026 operating income was CN¥50.15B (N16) and June-q 2026 operating income fell 57% to RMB15.16B with a RMB44.67B FCF outflow (S29). AI Cloud is real—June-q 2026 external revenue +45% and cloud EBITA margin 12% (S29)—but capex is consuming cash and a HK$80B equity placing funds it (S38). I keep section 13's TTM EBITDA base ($12.75B, S1) and use BABA's own 16.6x multiple for all cases; the 8.9x/19.0x peer marks are cross-checks, not a rerating catalyst. Base value is ~$109.6 (0.2%), downside on a 30% EBITDA decline is ~$82.3 (-24.8%), and upside on 25% EBITDA growth is ~$132.4 (+21.0%): watch, not long or short.
Key numbers
- Share price: $109.45
- Market cap: $254.20B
- Latest financial period: FY Mar 2026 to Mar 31, 2026
- Revenue (FY Mar 2026): CN¥1,023.67B
- EV / EBITDA (FY Mar 2026): 16.6x
- P/E (FY Mar 2026): 16.0x
- Price / book: 1.60x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
BABA's revenue rose from CN¥717.29B in FY2021 to CN¥1,023.67B in FY2026, but FY2026 operating income fell to CN¥50.15B from CN¥140.91B in FY2025, so the newest year was not an operating-earnings growth story. FY2026 net income to common was CN¥105.90B, well above operating income, and the XBRL table does not break out the non-operating items. The only business-mix description in the provided text is the FY2021 revenue line-up (customer management, membership, logistics, cloud, goods sales); the FY2026 excerpt is regulation-only and gives no segment revenue or guidance.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
The sources do not establish a durable moat. The 20-F (dated 2026-05-20) describes a multi-front fight with established Chinese Internet companies and global/regional e-commerce, cloud, logistics and media players that have traffic, brands, technology and financial resources. Scale is large—FY2026 revenue was CN¥1,023.67B (year ended 2026-03-31)—but FY2026 operating income fell to CN¥50.15B from CN¥140.91B and operating cash flow to CN¥76.21B from CN¥163.51B, so the margin/return record does not support a stable durable advantage. The sources have no newer post-FY2026 quarterly figures or guidance.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
The latest quarterly report is the June quarter 2026 release (quarter ended June 30, 2026, filed 2026-08-20 as a 6-K, not a 10-Q): revenue rose 9% to RMB268,953 million but operating income fell 57% to RMB15,161 million and adjusted EBITA fell 30%, with operating margin at 6% versus 14%. Growth is being funded by a heavy AI infrastructure build — capex RMB67,678 million (+75%) drove a free cash outflow of RMB44,670 million even as operating cash flow rose 11%. Cloud/AI is the growth engine (external revenue +45%), while China customer management revenue fell 7% (up 1% like-for-like) and buybacks were small at US$162 million. Neither source gives numeric guidance.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 9. Insider trading interpretation
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
Sign in with a QuantSignals Premium or Gold plan to read every box: each point linked to the SEC filing it came from, the bull and bear case, and the comparables. QS Research powers the signals behind FST, our autonomous trading agent.