QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
BOEING CO (BA)
As of 2026-11-08 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction low · base case none · downside -2% · upside +34%
At $173.40 the market is paying 14.2x TTM EBITDA of $12.02B, exactly the current EV, while TTM FCF is only $16.0M and FY2020-FY2025 operating income averages -$4.39B; there is no positive normalized earnings cushion. Base case at today's 14.2x is about $173/share (14.2 x $12.02B = $170.7B EV; less $33.38B net debt = $137.3B equity; / 792.45M = $173.3), so the stock is fairly priced on the recovery, not cheap. Downside including $2.27B leases is about $170 (-1.7%); upside only reaches about $232 (+34%) if the multiple rerates to 18.1x on MAX10/F-A-XX/777X catalysts, not on today's multiple. I would watch: the bad news is real, with Commercial Airplanes losing $697M in Q3 2026 and 737 rate targets slipping, and the long rule is not met until FCF and operating earnings prove durable.
Key numbers
- Share price: $173.40
- Market cap: $137.41B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $94.91B
- EV / EBITDA (TTM): 14.2x
- P/E (TTM): 18.8x
- Price / book: 20.99x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
Boeing is a three-segment aerospace business (Commercial Airplanes, Defense Space & Security, Global Services) that sells jetliners to airlines, weapons/space systems mostly to the U.S. DoD, and aftermarket parts and services over the life of the fleet; the FY2020 filing still carried a fourth segment, Boeing Capital. Between the oldest annual report here (FY2020) and the newest (FY2025) the business contracted and then reopened: revenue ran $58.16B (FY2020) to $89.46B (FY2025) but dipped to $66.52B in FY2024, and operating income was negative every year from FY2020 to FY2024 before turning +$4.28B in FY2025. The cycle is unusually cash-hungry: operating cash flow was negative in four of the six years and cumulative FY2020-FY2025 operating cash flow of -$23.38B was only partly offset by $10.20B of capex, with equity going from -$18.32B (FY2020) to +$5.45B (FY2025) while diluted shares rose from 568.60M to 762.30M.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
Boeing sells into an effectively duopoly-scale market with enormous regulatory and capital barriers, but the FY2020-FY2025 record in the data shows no durable earnings advantage: operating income was negative in five of the six years (cumulative about -$26.4B) and positive only in FY2025 ($4.28B on $89.46B revenue), a year in which operating cash flow of $1.06B still fell short of $2.94B of capex. Named competitors are Airbus and Chinese entrants in commercial aircraft, and General Dynamics, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, RTX and SpaceX in defense. The moat that does exist is licensing/regulatory (FAA certification and even production-rate concurrence) and scale, not cost: 40% of the workforce was union-represented at December 31, 2025, many items are sole-sourced, and roughly 60% of BDS and BGS 2025 revenue was fixed-price.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 revenue was $24,188 million, up 4% from $23,270 million, with nine-month revenue $70,965 million, up 8%, led by BDS; BCA Q3 revenue fell 3% on delivery mix. Q3 GAAP operating earnings were $354 million (1.5% margin) versus a $4,781 million loss in Q3 2025, but the company still had a $116 million net loss attributable to Boeing and a $0.26 diluted loss per share. BDS earnings included a $252 million HRL Laboratories sale gain, so it is not clean operating earnings. Q3 operating cash flow was $1,496 million and free cash flow $464 million; debt was $45.9 billion, backlog a record $745 billion, and outlook is operational timing, not numeric financial guidance.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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