QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
ASTRAZENECA PLC (AZN)
As of 2026-11-11 · 9/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Report price $186.76 (close 2026-11-10)
Conclusion: LONG
Conviction low · base case +45% · downside -24% · upside +77%
The market is pricing AZN at $186.76 (2026-11-10), or 28.3x FY2025 GAAP and 25.5x operating P/E, for a business that has just printed Q3 2026 revenue of $16.209B, +7%, core EPS $2.79 versus $2.60 consensus and reconfirmed FY2026 mid-to-high single-digit revenue and low-double-digit core EPS growth at CER. N47 anchors the base at the peer median 41.1x P/E, $271.23, +45%; a 10% decline in adjusted net income at a compressed ~24x P/E gives about $143, -24%, so the downside is still inside -25%. The upside re-rates to 41.1x on 10% higher adjusted earnings, about $331, +77%, supported by dated Q3 beat/guidance, the 14 Sep 2026 insider cluster buy and the Summit/ivonescimab FDA decision expected by 14 Nov 2026. The FY2025 base is stale, but Q3 2026 growth plus ROIC 15.3% versus WACC 5.7% and a 4.1% FCF yield make the risk/reward a long, not a pass.
Key numbers
- Share price: $186.76
- Market cap: $289.65B
- Latest financial period: FY Dec 2025 to Dec 31, 2025
- Revenue (FY Dec 2025): $58.74B
- P/E (FY Dec 2025): 28.3x
- FCF yield: 4.1%
- Price / book: 5.95x
- P/E, operating (tax-normalized) (FY Dec 2025): 25.5x
- EV / FCF (FY Dec 2025): 26.6x
- Revenue growth (latest fiscal year): +8.6%
- ROIC (FY Dec 2025): 15.3%
- WACC: 5.7%
- Economic profit spread: +9.6 pts
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
AstraZeneca is a USD-reporting UK-domiciled pharmaceutical group whose FY2025 product sales were $55,573M and total revenue was $58.74B, the newest figures in the provided sources. The business has moved from FY2020, when product sales were $25,890M and the mix was Oncology, CVRM, Respiratory & Immunology and Other, to FY2025, when Oncology is $23,698M and Rare Disease, acquired with Alexion in 2021, is $9,126M. Partnered-product alliance revenue and a late-stage pipeline sit alongside patent expiries on key medicines.
- ○ 2. Competitive advantage
The sources show a large, high-gross-margin global pharmaceutical business: FY2025 revenue $58.74B, gross profit $48.11B, operating income $13.74B and operating cash flow $14.57B. The moat evidence is scale, cash generation, presence in more than 80 countries and science-based pricing, but the same sources stress competition from other pharmaceutical companies, payer price pressure, regulatory approval risk and IP/patent erosion. On these sources the advantage looks real but not proven durable, because they give no market-share, patent-life or switching-cost data.
- ○ 3. 10-Q takeaways
The latest quarterly report in the sources is the Q3 2026 6-K results release dated 30 October 2026. Q3 2026 total revenue was $16,209m, +7% actual and +7% CER; reported operating profit was $4,387m (+22% actual/+26% CER) and core operating profit was $5,855m (+17%/+20%). FY2026 guidance was reconfirmed for mid-to-high single-digit total revenue growth and low-double-digit Core EPS growth at CER. The release does not give cash, inventory, buybacks or risk-factor changes.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 9. Insider trading interpretation
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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