QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
Atomera Inc (ATOM)
As of 2026-11-09 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: SHORT
Conviction medium · base case -70% · downside -70% · upside -62%
Atomera has no positive earnings power: normalized operating income is -$25.1M and TTM EBIT is -$24.0M, so the cyclical normalization only confirms the loss (N30/N31/N13). The market is still paying $117.6M market cap and $82.8M EV for $219k TTM revenue, or 537.17x P/S and 378.14x EV/Sales, while the closest peer EV/Sales is 17.03x (N9/N22/N23/N24/S1). I rerate the multiple lower to peer sales levels because the October 2025 ST qualification stop removed the nearest commercial conversion and Q3 2026 revenue was $0 (S26/S27/S31). On peer sales multiples the equity is worth about $0.89 on TTM revenue and about $1.13 on FY2023 peak revenue, both far below the $3.01 close (S1/S2/N20/N5/N1). This is a short: base/downside around the $0.89 cash floor and upside no better than $1.13.
Key numbers
- Share price: $3.01
- Market cap: $117.6M
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $219,000
- Price / book: 3.59x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
Atomera licenses MST rather than manufacturing wafers or chips, earning upfront license fees, engineering-service revenue and, if customers reach high-volume manufacturing, royalties. Between the FY2020 and FY2025 10-Ks the stated model shifted from initial integration licenses and engineering services toward JDAs and upfront R&D/HVM licenses, with newer work in compound semiconductors/GaN and an April 2025 tool-vendor marketing agreement. XBRL shows revenue of $65,000 in FY2025 and operating income of -$21.1M; FY2024 net income to common of $18.4M sat beside an operating loss of $19.3M, so it was not operating profitability.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
The sources show an IP-heavy licensing story, not a proven durable advantage: patents and confidential know-how are the claimed moat, but FY2025 revenue was only $65,000 and operating income was -$21.1M. Atomera says it is not aware of another technology with MST's technical benefits, but it competes with IDMs, OEMs, foundries, fabless makers and IP licensors, and customer engineering teams may view MST as competitive with internal solutions. The October 2025 ST qualification stop and the absence of customer commitments to later licensing stages leave the advantage unproven.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 revenue was $0, down from $11,000 in Q3 2025 and $158,000 in Q2 2026, while the net loss was $6.0 million and loss from operations was $6.328 million. Cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments were $34.8 million at Sep 30 2026, helped by $23.6 million net proceeds from the Feb 2026 registered direct offering and $3.1 million from the 2025 ATM in the nine months; no ATM shares were sold in Q3. The 10-Q gives only a 12-month liquidity outlook and no numeric revenue/EPS guidance, and it says risk factors have not changed materially from the FY2025 10-K.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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