QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS)
As of 2026-11-10 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction low · base case none · downside -45% · upside +36%
At $36.89 the market pays $11.07B equity / $9.87B EV for $142.9M TTM revenue, 69.05x EV/Sales, against -$606.2M TTM EBITDA and -$1.80B TTM FCF. On today's own 69.05x EV/Sales, the TTM revenue base is already fully priced (base ~0%); revenue at FY2025's $70.9M would value equity near $6.1B (-45%), while FY2026 guidance high of $200M would support about $15.0B (+36%). The company has $5.30B of cash and short-term investments and $1.21B of net cash, so it is not a near-term solvency short, and 21.9% short interest plus launch headlines make the risk/reward two-sided. I would watch, not short, until a dated operational or financing event either validates the revenue ramp or breaks the multiple.
Key numbers
- Share price: $36.89
- Market cap: $11.07B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $142.9M
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
AST SpaceMobile is pre-commercial: the latest 10-K says the SpaceMobile Service has not launched and has generated no service revenue, while current revenue comes from U.S. government performance obligations and gateway equipment, software and related services sold to MNOs. XBRL shows revenue of $6.0M in FY2020, $0 in FY2023 and $70.9M in FY2025, but FY2025 still had pre-tax loss of $457.1M and negative operating cash flow. The oldest annual report provided is a blank-check filing, while the latest describes a satellite network with MNO agreements, spectrum rights and a 25/45-60/90 satellite deployment plan.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
No durable competitive advantage is demonstrated yet: the SpaceMobile Service had not launched and had generated no revenue as of the 10-K dated 2026-03-02, so the claimed advantages are prospective. ASTS has prospective assets — spectrum rights, about 3,850 patent claims, control of about 95% of Block 2 subsystem manufacturing, and MNO partnerships covering nearly 3 billion subscribers — but it competes with SpaceX's Starlink and established satellite operators with greater resources. The FY2020-FY2025 record is negative pre-tax income and negative operating cash flow every year, with FY2025 revenue of $70.9M coming from U.S. government work and gateway equipment/software/services, not SpaceMobile Service.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 revenue was $42.3 million versus $14.7 million in Q3 2025, split between $20.6 million of gateway equipment/software sold to MNOs and $21.8 million of U.S. government milestone services — not SpaceMobile service revenue, which the 10-Q says has not begun. Cost of products ($22.5 million) ran above product revenue, total operating expenses were $211.0 million versus $94.4 million, and the $132.4 million net loss attributable to common was flattered by a year-ago $84.3 million induced-conversion charge that did not repeat. Liquidity was about $3.2 billion of cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash at September 30, 2026, with management reiterating $150.0–$200.0 million of revenue guidance and roughly $1.0 billion of non-dilutive J-LEO funding from Japan's MIC with Rakuten.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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