QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
ASML HOLDING NV (ASML)
As of 2026-11-08 · 8/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction low · base case +24% · downside -37% · upside +24%
ASML is a genuinely accelerating franchise — Q3 2026 net sales €11.7B, 57.5% gross margin, 44.4% operating margin, and FY2026 guidance raised three times to €44-45B at ~56% gross margin (S27, S41) — yet the stock sits 28.8% below its 52-week high on an AI-capex sentiment de-rating, not on operating weakness (S7, N2). The problem is the price: at 39.3x FY2025 EV/EBITDA, 14.81x EV/Sales and 51.3x P/E (N28, N29, N32) ASML is the most expensive name in its comp set, and the multiple already asks for 30-50% earnings growth before it pays you anything. My base case holds today's 39.3x on FY2025 EBITDA grown 24% again (the FY2025 delivered rate) for +23.8%; the downside compresses to LRCX's 24.4x for -37.1%. That is a base of +24% against a downside of -37% — the long rule (+30% base, downside no worse than -25%) is not met, and the short rule is not met either, so this is a watch: a high-quality business whose premium multiple leaves no margin of safety at $1,424.75.
Key numbers
- Share price: $1,424.75
- Market cap: $549.12B
- Latest financial period: FY Dec 2025 to Dec 31, 2025
- Revenue (FY Dec 2025): €32.67B
- EV / EBITDA (FY Dec 2025): 39.3x
- P/E (FY Dec 2025): 51.3x
- Price / book: 25.13x
The 15 boxes
- ○ 1. Long-form business notes
The only provided source is an XBRL table of six fiscal years of aggregate financials in EUR, so it shows how ASML's scale, earnings and cash generation changed from FY2020 to FY2025 but not its segments, channels, unit economics or narrative history. Revenue rose from €13.98B in FY2020 to €32.67B in FY2025, operating income from €4.05B to €11.30B, and net income from €3.55B to €9.61B; FY2025 operating cash flow was €12.66B against €1.57B capex. FY2025 also shows €5.95B of buybacks, €12.92B cash and 388.90M diluted shares. The source has no Q3 2026, nine-month 2026, TTM or guidance data, so the latest figures are FY2025 and any current-scale valuation is not supported by these sources alone.
- ○ 2. Competitive advantage
The sources show a scale-and-technology advantage: revenue, gross profit, operating income and net income all rose from FY2020 to FY2025, FY2025 gross margin was 52.8%, R&D was €4.7bn and ASML sold 535 systems. But the evidence is not a clean moat: risk factors flag high customer concentration, Chinese entrants, architectures that rely less on lithography, price competition and export licensing. The sources do not name specific competitors or quantify market share, so the advantage is inferred from scale, customer satisfaction and technology adoption rather than a stated share.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
ASML's latest quarterly disclosure is the Q3 2026 6-K release dated Oct 14 2026, not a 10-Q: Q3 2026 total net sales were €11.7bn, gross margin 57.5%, operating margin 44.4%, net income €5.0bn and basic EPS €12.95. FY2026 guidance is €44–45bn total net sales with gross margin around 56%. The H1 2026 EU-IFRS interim report shows sales up 17.2% to €18.1bn but gross margin down to 50.9% and operating cash flow negative €481.5m; Q3 2026 operating cash flow rebounded to €11,798m and buybacks were about €4.1bn.
- ○ 4. Corporate governance
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 9. Insider trading interpretation
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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