QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
Apollo Global Management, Inc. (APO)
As of 2026-11-11 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Report price $122.74 (close 2026-11-10)
Conclusion: PASS
Conviction low · base case none · downside -38% · upside +10%
The market pays 4.54x book (N22) for a company whose TTM net income to common is -$991.0M and TTM ROE -6.2% (N13, N20), which looks rich until you note TTM pretax income of $3.05B and operating cash flow of $9.31B (N14) and that the swing is performance-fee marks (Q3 2026 fees $45M gross but $(192)M net of profit sharing; Fund IX $(209)M unrealized), not operating decay. On the only multiples that apply to a financial, the base case at 4.0x book is $108.06 (-12%: $15.95B x 4.0 = $63.80B / 590.43M shares), the rerated upside at 5.0x book on the 2026-11-03 European Credit Company launch and record $802M fee-related earnings is $135.07 (+10%: $15.95B x 5.0 = $79.75B / 590.43M), and a 25% decline in TTM earnings power with the book multiple compressed to 3.0x is $81.04 (-34%: $15.95B x 3.0 = $47.85B / 590.43M). The facts gap is the whole call - nothing in the sources says what sits between $3.05B of pretax income and -$991.0M of common earnings, and the Q3 2026 release carries no revenue, EPS or book value - so I will not pay for the recovery, and the 6.3 days-to-cover crowded short (N32) is not a mispricing I can price. Base -12%, downside -34%, upside +10%: no edge either way, pass.
Key numbers
- Share price: $122.74
- Market cap: $72.47B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $30.82B
- Price / book: 4.54x
- Revenue growth (latest fiscal year): +22.7%
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
Apollo is an alternative asset manager and retirement-services provider with three reportable segments in the FY2022 10-K; asset management earns management/capital-solutions fees and is measured by FRE, with $547.6B AUM at 12/31/2022 and $321.4B perpetual capital. The provided source set does not include the latest segment/AUM tables; the latest 10-K excerpt instead covers regulatory developments, including Athene's 2024 IAIG identification and ACRA's Bermuda CIT election revocation tied to $1.7B of net Bermuda deferred tax assets. XBRL shows revenue $32.64B in FY2023, $26.11B in FY2024 and $32.05B in FY2025, with pre-tax income $5.59B, $7.43B and $6.68B; TTM to Sep 2026 revenue was $30.82B, pre-tax income $3.05B, and net income to common -$991.0M.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
Apollo shows the marks of a scale-based advantage rather than a price-taker: revenue compounded from $2.35B (FY2020) to $32.05B (FY2025), and pretax income rose to $7.43B in FY2024 even though revenue fell to $26.11B from $32.64B in FY2023, so earnings did not collapse with revenue. Its own 10-K, however, describes both segments as intensely competitive, with asset management competed away on fees and performance and Athene's annuities competed on crediting rates and financial strength ratings — i.e. price. The claimed moats are scale in permanent capital (nearly 60% of total AUM, over 70% of fee-generating AUM), a $309 billion FY2025 origination machine across 16 platforms, a 35-year capital-formation franchise with repeat investors, and Athene's ability to close large complex block transactions. The record is not clean: FY2022 pretax income was -$4.25B and net income to common was -$991.0M on a TTM basis to 2026-09-30 despite $3.05B of pretax income.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
The Q3 2026 10-Q shows a fee-driven quarter under a rising-rate backdrop: total AUM reached $1.07 trillion at September 30, 2026 (credit $870 billion, about $620 billion of it private credit; equity $204 billion), but performance fees were only $45 million in the quarter and negative $(192) million after profit sharing, as Fund IX and Fund VIII marks fell. Athene's floating-rate position stayed near neutral ($2.8 billion net, 1% of net invested assets) while the 10-year Treasury rose to 5.29% at September 30, 2026 from 4.44% at June 30, 2026. The main strain disclosed is in perpetual non-traded BDC structures, where industry-wide redemption requests are slowing growth; the supplied MD&A excerpt does not carry revenue, margin, cash or buyback figures.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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