QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC (AMD)
As of 2026-11-08 · 13/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction low · base case none · downside -30% · upside +80%
The market is not missing AMD's growth; it is already capitalizing TTM net income of $7.62B at 96.7x and TTM revenue of $45.44B at 16.02x EV/Sales. At that same 96.7x P/E, today's $449.04 is the base case on TTM earnings, a 30% earnings decline gives $314.5 (-30%), and the 2027 >80% growth guide at the same multiple gives $808.6 (+80%). The business has real momentum—Q3 2026 Data Center revenue was $8.55B, up 97% Y/Y, and Q4 2026 is guided to about $17B—but no durable moat is evidenced, competition is intensifying, and insider open-market flow is one-way. I would not short it because the upside case from guidance is above +25% and I cannot lower the multiple without a cited non-valuation catalyst; watch delivery against Q4/2027 or a growth stall.
Key numbers
- Share price: $449.04
- Market cap: $736.46B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 26, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $45.44B
- EV / EBITDA (TTM): 84.9x
- P/E (TTM): 96.7x
- Price / book: 10.77x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
AMD designs and sells high-performance CPUs, GPUs, adaptive SoCs/FPGAs and networking silicon through three reportable segments — Data Center, Client and Gaming, and Embedded — selling direct, through OEMs/ODMs and through distributors, while outsourcing wafer fabrication to TSMC and GLOBALFOUNDRIES. The company more than tripled revenue between FY2020 ($9.76B) and FY2025 ($34.64B), with FY2025 operating income of $3.69B and operating cash flow of $7.71B. The newest 10-K describes a company reorganized around AI data center (Instinct MI350 accelerators, 5th Gen EPYC, Helios rack-scale, OpenAI 6-gigawatt agreement), versus the FY2020 filing that still framed the Xilinx acquisition as pending. Dilution rose from 1,207.00M diluted shares in FY2020 to 1,636.00M in FY2025, and an amortization-of-intangibles line of $2.30B now sits between gross profit and operating income.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
No durable competitive advantage is evidenced in the sources. AMD has scale—FY2025 revenue $34.64B, gross profit $17.15B, operating income $3.69B—and says it is the market-share leader in semi-custom game consoles, but the 10-K describes highly competitive markets and competitors with stronger market positions, customer bases, design wins and financial resources. It competes with Intel and Nvidia in Data Center and Client/Gaming, and with Altera, Lattice, Microsemi, Broadcom, Marvell, ADI, TI, NXP, Qualcomm and Nvidia in Embedded. Margin/return history shows growth but volatile operating income; FY2025 includes export-related inventory charges and a reversal.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 (quarter ended Sep 26, 2026) was a record: revenue was $13.377B, up 45% Y/Y, led by Data Center at $8.546B, up 97%; GAAP gross margin was 54% and operating income $2.832B. Net income of $2.428B included a $1.1B warrant-liability fair-value charge and a $555M tax benefit with a $772M discrete stock-compensation benefit, so operating income is the cleaner read. Cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments rose to $15.8B, nine-month operating cash flow was $6.523B, inventory rose $3.5B, and Q4 2026 guidance is about $17B revenue +/-3% with about 55% non-GAAP gross margin.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ✓ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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