QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
ALNYLAM PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (ALNY)
As of 2026-11-11 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Report price $151.64 (close 2026-11-10)
Conclusion: PASS
Conviction low · base case none · downside -40% · upside +5%
At $151.64 the market already pays 16.2x TTM EV/EBITDA (N26) for a business that earned $1.03B EBITDA TTM to Sep 30 2026 (N14), while the independent base anchor at 17.3x plus $3.59B net cash (N22) over 133.94M shares (N5) gives $159.8, only +5.4%. Cycle-average earnings are negative (FY2020-FY2025 average operating income -$379.95M, S2), so the valuation rests on TTM, not a normalized recovery; a 30% EBITDA decline to $721M at a compressed 13.8x multiple gives about $101, -33.4%. A November 2026 cemdisiran PDUFA or HELIOS-B data could rerate the shares (S5), but the base and upside both sit near today's price and AMVUTTRA concentration/guidance cut keep the downside real, so this is a pass, not a long or a short.
Key numbers
- Share price: $151.64
- Market cap: $20.31B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $5.01B
- EV / EBITDA (TTM): 16.2x
- P/E (TTM): 7.7x
- FCF yield: 4.0%
- Price / book: 5.64x
- Earnings-quality flags (TTM): none flagged
- P/E, operating (tax-normalized) (TTM): 26.3x
- EV / FCF (TTM): 20.7x
- Revenue growth (latest fiscal year): +65.2%
- ROIC (TTM): 268.9%
- WACC: 7.5%
- Economic profit spread: +261.4 pts
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
Alnylam is a commercial-stage RNAi company that has moved from four approved products and a $492.9M revenue base in FY2020 to six approved products (two of them marketed by partners Novartis and Sanofi) and $3.71B of revenue in FY2025, with $5.01B on a TTM basis to 30-Sep-2026 (S22, S23, S24). Over the same six fiscal years operating income swung from -$828.4M (FY2020) to +$501.6M (FY2025) and $977.6M TTM, and operating cash flow from -$615.0M to +$524.1M and $955.9M (S24). The business is now dominated by the TTR franchise after the March 2025 US and June 2025 EU cardiomyopathy approvals for AMVUTTRA, with nucresiran, zilebesiran and cemdisiran as the stated next growth drivers. TTM net income of $2.65B sits far above TTM pre-tax income of $781.5M, so a large non-operating item is in that figure that the data does not itemize (S24).
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
The record shows a real but narrow and recent advantage: revenue compounded from $492.9M (FY2020) to $3.71B (FY2025) and $5.01B (TTM to 2026-09-30), and operating income swung from -$828.4M (FY2020) to +$501.6M (FY2025) and +$977.6M (TTM), the first profitable year being FY2025 after a $6.70B accumulated deficit. That advantage rests on RNAi product exclusivity and patents, not on scale or cost: the 10-K describes 'hundreds of companies' in the field and names more than fifteen siRNA programs plus approved ATTR-CM rivals from Pfizer, BridgeBio, Bayer/Alexion and Ionis/AstraZeneca, with four Phase 3 ATTR-CM competitors. Concentration is the weak point — a significant portion of 2025 net product revenue came from TTR products, mainly AMVUTTRA, and the AMVUTTRA-dependence risk factor is one of 73 paragraphs with no counterpart in the prior 10-K. TTM net income of $2.65B against TTM pre-tax income of $781.5M is not an operating figure and is not counted as one here.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 total revenues rose 17% to $1.458B and net product revenues rose 52% to $1.292B, led by AMVUTTRA/TTR (+65% AMVUTTRA, total TTR +59%); collaboration revenue fell 80% because Q3 2025 included a $300M Roche milestone. GAAP operating income fell 6% to $345.8M, while GAAP net income of $2.167B included a $1.872B income-tax benefit, so the net-income jump is not an operating improvement. Cost of goods sold rose to 28.0% of net product revenues from 23.2%, and the 10-Q risk summary keeps AMVUTTRA revenue dependence as a top risk.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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