QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
Antelope Enterprise Holdings Ltd (AEHL)
As of 2026-11-09 · 11/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: SHORT
Conviction low · base case -40% · downside -55% · upside 0%
The market is still anchoring AEHL on FY2024 revenue of $98.8M (N10) and 0.91x EV/Sales (N26), but the latest six months ended March 31, 2026 show net sales of $29.904M, down 39.4%, and management discloses substantial doubt about going concern on $1.778M cash (S26). Annualizing that $29.904M half-year gives $59.8M; at the same 0.91x, EV is $54.4M, less $0.892M net debt (N23) leaves $53.5M equity, or $7.49 per share on 7.14M shares (N5), -40% from the $12.50 close (N1). A downside with another 25% revenue decline values equity at $39.9M, or $5.59/share (-55%); even a return to FY2024's $98.8M at 0.91x is only $12.47/share (-0.3%), so the upside case is not +25% and the rule points short. The balance sheet, going-concern language, and 2026 convertible/ATM issuance make the current price a supply-and-hope valuation rather than a deep-value bargain.
Key numbers
- Share price: $12.50
- Market cap: $89.2M
- Latest financial period: FY Dec 2024 to Dec 31, 2024
- Revenue (FY Dec 2024): $98.8M
- Price / book: 3.32x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
AEHL's business changed from a ceramic tile manufacturer with two facilities and 51.6 million square meters of annual capacity as of Dec 31, 2020 to a livestreaming ecommerce operator via Hainan Kylin since Sep 2021, after selling the ceramic tile business on Apr 28, 2023; the latest 20-F also describes a planned natural-gas energy supply business. FY2024 revenue was $98.8M, all from the PRC, but gross profit was -$126,000 and operating cash flow was -$15.5M; at 2025-09-30 cash was $1.9M and total equity was $26.9M. The 2025-09-30 column has no revenue, so the newest revenue in the data is FY2024 $98.8M.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
On the sources provided, AEHL has no demonstrated durable competitive advantage: the 20-F describes intense competition from established livestreaming players and traditional retail giants, and its differentiation claims are execution-based rather than exclusive. The financial record shows revenue growth from $42.6M in FY2022 to $98.8M in FY2024, but gross profit turned negative in FY2024 and operating cash flow was negative every year. The newest data only give cash and equity at 2025-09-30, not revenue or margin, so the current competitive position and valuation are out of date.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
The latest interim report (6-K MD&A, six months ended March 31, 2026, prepared as of June 29, 2026) shows revenue falling 39.4% to $29.9m while gross margin stayed near 2.85% — $1.284m of gross profit on $29.9m of net sales. The $2.591m net loss narrowed only with $2.065m of other income, including a $1.2m government grant and $0.7m loan forgiveness, while administrative costs rose 10.0% and management discloses substantial doubt about going concern on $1.778m of cash. Financing continues after a 1-for-6 reverse split in March 2026: a $3.0m convertible note in May 2026 convertible into up to 4,800,000 Class A shares. Caveat: as a foreign private issuer AEHL files 6-Ks, and these sources give six-month figures, not a single quarter.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 9. Insider trading interpretation
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
Sign in with a QuantSignals Premium or Gold plan to read every box: each point linked to the SEC filing it came from, the bull and bear case, and the comparables. QS Research powers the signals behind FST, our autonomous trading agent.