QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK)
As of 2026-11-08 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction low · base case 0% · downside -24% · upside +29%
Autodesk is a high-quality recurring software business, but at 24.1x TTM EV/EBITDA, 33.3x TTM P/E and a 5.2% FCF yield it is not a deep-value stock. The market is focused on billings/RPO optics, the sales reorganization and MaintainX dilution, while Q2 FY27 revenue grew 16% and FCF grew 24% and FY27 revenue and billings guidance were raised. Using today's 24.1x EV/EBITDA on TTM EBITDA of $2.24B gives a base case of roughly -0.1% versus today's $261.72 close. The downside to PTC's 18.3x is -23.8% and the upside to BSY's 31.3x is +29.4%, so risk/reward is balanced rather than a long or a short; this is a watch until price or execution provides a margin of safety.
Key numbers
- Share price: $261.72
- Market cap: $54.70B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Jul 31, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $7.79B
- EV / EBITDA (TTM): 24.1x
- P/E (TTM): 33.3x
- Price / book: 16.17x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
Autodesk sells recurring-subscription design, engineering and construction software (AECO, AutoCAD, MFG, M&E) mostly through a channel that has flipped from 69% indirect in FY2021 to 37% indirect in FY2026. Scale roughly doubled in the window: revenue $3.79B (FY2021) to $7.21B (FY2026), operating income $629.0M to $1.58B, operating cash flow $1.61B to $2.45B on capex of only $43.0M. The portfolio was re-cut (BIM 360/PlanGrid/Shotgun replaced by Autodesk Build, BIM Collaborate Pro, Tandem, Flow Production Tracking), distributor dependence fell sharply (TD Synnex 39% of FY2024 revenue to 14% in FY2026), and management flags a billings/collections timing drag from the shift to annual billings on multi-year contracts that continues into FY2027. Headcount fell to ~14,300 at January 31, 2026 and no acquisitions closed in FY2026.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
The record supports a high-margin, cash-generative business but not a clearly durable moat: revenue and gross profit rose every year FY2021-FY2026, yet the FY2026 10-K says software has limited barriers to entry, competition is vigorous, and some rivals have greater resources. The competitor set is broad, including Adobe, Bentley, Dassault/SolidWorks, Hexagon/Intergraph, MSC, Nemetschek, Oracle, Procore, PTC, 3D Systems, Siemens PLM and Trimble. IP and 1-3-year subscriptions help, but the 10-K warns IP may not be enforced and renewal rates are hard to predict.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
The latest 10-Q covers the quarter ended 2026-07-31 (fiscal Q2 2027, filed 2026-08-28): revenue up 16% to $2.05B (14% constant currency), recurring revenue 97% of net revenue, GAAP operating margin 29% (+4 ppt) and non-GAAP 41% (+2 ppt). Billings grew only 10% to $1.85B and deferred revenue/RPO fell 9% and 10% versus the prior fiscal year-end (up 11% and 2% year over year). Six-month operating cash flow was $1.47B versus $1.02B, $901M went to buybacks, and cash plus marketable securities was $4.36B. Guidance was raised for FY27 revenue ($8,295-$8,345M) and billings, non-GAAP margin held at ~39%, and FY27 free cash flow narrowed to $2,725-$2,750M including roughly $45M of MaintainX transaction expenses.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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