QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB)
As of 2026-11-08 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction low · base case +9% · downside -18% · upside +13%
I keep section 13's TTM to Sep 30 2026 base (EBIT $3.13B, net cash $10.22B, 597.00M shares) but not its 20x downside multiple, because the only reason given for a lower multiple is valuation/comparables, not a cited non-valuation catalyst. At today's 32.9x EV/EBIT, base EBIT +10% ($3.44B) gives 32.9 x $3.44B = $113.3B EV + $10.22B net cash = $123.5B / 597M = $207 (+9%). Downside EBIT -20% ($2.50B) gives $82.4B + $10.22B = $92.6B / 597M = $155 (-18%), while upside EBIT +15% ($3.60B) gives $118.4B + $10.22B = $128.6B / 597M = $215 (+13%). The market is not missing growth—Q3 2026 revenue rose 19% and FY2026 guidance is high teens—but at 32.9x EV/EBIT the price already capitalizes high-teens growth and margin expansion; cash return and net cash are supports, not enough to make the stock cheap. Risk/reward is not a long and the base case is not low enough for a short, so the call is watch.
Key numbers
- Share price: $189.99
- Market cap: $113.42B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $13.93B
- EV / EBITDA (TTM): 32.8x
- P/E (TTM): 35.4x
- Price / book: 12.18x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
Airbnb is a two-sided global marketplace: hosts list stays, experiences and (since May 2025) services, and guests book them across over 220 countries and regions. Scale has compounded from 4 million hosts and ~800 million guest arrivals at FY2020 to over 5 million hosts and over 2.5 billion arrivals at FY2025, with revenue up from $3.38B (FY2020) to $12.24B (FY2025) and operating income from -$3.59B to $2.54B. The FY2025 model is cash-generative ($4.65B operating cash flow) and returns capital ($3.79B of buybacks) while the stated growth strategy shifts from stays toward a broader travel-and-services platform. Note that FY2023's $4.79B net income to common was far above that year's $1.52B operating income, so headline profit in that year is not a clean operating read.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
Airbnb has a real but unlicensed advantage: network scale (over 5 million hosts, 2.5 billion guest arrivals, 220+ countries and regions) and a brand the company says lets it rely less on paid marketing, and it converts that into $4.65B of operating cash flow in FY2025. But the operating record says the advantage is not widening at the margin: FY2025 revenue rose $1.14B to $12.24B while operating income went $2.55B to $2.54B. The 10-K itself concedes low switching costs — hosts and guests 'have a range of options' — and names Booking.com, Expedia/VRBO, Trip.com, Google and AI-powered search, hotel chains and experiences platforms as competitors. The main non-market threat to the supply base is regulation, e.g. New York City's 2023 rules that produced a de facto short-term-rental ban.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 (quarter ended 2026-09-30) was a clean growth quarter: revenue $4,869M, +19% (+16% constant currency), GBV $27,715M +21% and Nights and Seats Booked 155M +16%, with income from operations of $2,021M (42% of revenue) and Adjusted EBITDA $2,509M (52% margin vs 50%). Net income of $1,890M benefited from comparison against a prior-year $213M CAMT valuation allowance, so the tax effect is not operating improvement; FCF rose to $1,426M but FCF margin fell to 29% from 33% on higher capex and the RNPL payment shift. The company raised FY2026 guidance (revenue growth high teens, Adjusted EBITDA margin ~36%) and Q4 2026 revenue to $3.22-3.28B (+16-18%), authorized a new $12B buyback in November 2026, and reported no material change in risk factors.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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