QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
AbCellera Biologics Inc. (ABCL)
As of 2026-11-09 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: SHORT
Conviction high · base case -70% · downside -84% · upside -20%
The market is capitalizing a clinical pipeline, not an operating business: TTM revenue is $66.2M against EBIT -$225.2M and EBITDA -$200.0M, and the stated EV/Sales is 53.23x. I use section 13's six-year cycle-average revenue of $205.9M for all three cases rather than TTM $66.2M because a cyclical should be normalized and one base must drive all cases; applying the peer EV/Sales range of 2.24x-13.56x gives downside $1.90, base $3.55 and upside $9.50, all below the $11.88 price. Today's price implies about 17.1x normalized revenue ($3.52B EV / $205.9M), 26% above the cycle average at our highest peer multiple, so it already assumes a pipeline outcome the financials do not support. The Q2 2026 10-Q showing revenue down 76% and widening operating loss (S29), plus the August 2026 financing at $9.75 (S34), re-rate the equity away from the 53x sales multiple. I would short; the problems look structural, not temporary, because the full cycle, peak included, never produced positive normalized operating income.
Key numbers
- Share price: $11.88
- Market cap: $3.64B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Jun 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $66.2M
- Price / book: 4.07x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
AbCellera has, by its own account, converted from a partner-funded antibody discovery platform into a clinical-stage company developing its own drugs: FY2025 10-K language says it 'historically used our platform for our partners' programs' but has 'evolved our strategy to build our own internal pipeline.' The financial shape follows that switch: revenue ran $233.2M (FY2020), $375.2M (FY2021), $485.4M (FY2022), then $38.0M (FY2023), $28.8M (FY2024) and $75.1M (FY2025), while operating income went from +$216.5M in FY2022 to -$314.8M in FY2024 and -$217.1M in FY2025. The old economics were one-partner concentrated (2020 revenue included $198.3M of bamlanivimab royalties); the new economics have no approved product and management states it expects losses and negative operating cash flow in the near-to-medium term. FY2025 operating cash flow was -$131.3M against $128.5M of cash at 2025-12-31, alongside approximately $700M of stated available liquidity.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
The numbers show no durable advantage: revenue ran $485.4M in FY2022, $38.0M in FY2023, $28.8M in FY2024 and $75.1M in FY2025, while operating income went from +$216.5M (FY2022) to -$314.8M (FY2024) and -$217.1M (FY2025) — the shape of lumpy partner payments, not a sticky franchise. The only moat claims are management's assertions of a 'low marginal cost' platform and a capital-efficient build; no margin evidence in the sources supports it, and the company has never filed a BLA and has no final clinical data for any program. In both lead indications the competition is named and well-capitalised: low-cost generic hormone therapy and two approved non-hormonal drugs in VMS, and four approved antibody marketers in atopic dermatitis.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
In the quarter ended June 30, 2026, AbCellera's total revenue fell 76% to $4.05 million from $17.08 million in Q2 2025, almost entirely because licensing and royalty revenue collapsed to $0.149 million from $10.445 million while research fees fell 41% to $3.9 million. The operating loss widened to $62.8 million from $49.6 million, and the net loss of $55.4 million ($0.18 per share) is after a $3.5 million tax recovery, not an operating result. Cost mix shifted toward R&D (+17% to $46.0 million) and away from SG&A (-37% to $13.9 million); cash and marketable securities were $540.1 million at June 30, 2026 per the 10-Q, though the same-day release claims "over $565 million," and the $7.6 million six-month operating cash use is flattered by a $56.0 million Jazz upfront and a $36.0 million litigation receipt. Neither the 10-Q nor the Q2 2026 earnings release gives numeric guidance; both give only program timing.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
Sign in with a QuantSignals Premium or Gold plan to read every box: each point linked to the SEC filing it came from, the bull and bear case, and the comparables. QS Research powers the signals behind FST, our autonomous trading agent.