QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC (BRK.B)
As of 2026-11-08 · 13/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction medium · base case +0% · downside -14% · upside +12%
At $570.89 the stock is only 2.6% below its 52-week high, and the usable comps multiple is 14.3x TTM net income, the top of the insurer peer band; KEY NUMBERS' 0.0x P/E and 0.00x P/B are void because N6 uses 0.94M shares from a 2011 filing cover. On the same TTM base as section 13, 14.3x times $85.77B net income gives about $1,226.5B versus the $1,222.51B comps market cap (+0.3%), 12.3x gives about $1,055B (-13.7%), and holding 14.3x while book compounds at the stated 11.5% ROE gives about $1,364B (+11.5%). The franchise is high quality—$747.91B book, 11.5% TTM ROE, about $177.5B of float, and $4.8B of H1 2026 buybacks—but TTM net income leans on investment gains, while annualizing H1 2026 operating earnings of $24,329M gives roughly $48.7B, making the market cap about 25x the operating run-rate. I would not buy at this price, and the short rule is not met because the base case is not -30% or lower, so the call is watch, not short.
Key numbers
- Share price: $570.89
- Market cap: $537.5M
- Latest financial period: TTM to Jun 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $384.69B
- P/E (TTM): 0.0x
- Price / book: 0.00x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
Berkshire is a decentralized holding company whose core operations are insurance (GEICO, Berkshire Hathaway Primary Group and Berkshire Hathaway Reinsurance Group), BNSF freight rail and Berkshire Hathaway Energy utilities/energy, alongside manufacturing, services and retailing. Insurance float rose from about $138B at end-2020 to about $176B at end-2025, and U.S. insurer statutory surplus was about $333B at 12/31/2025. Between the FY2020 and FY2025 10-Ks, total headcount rose to about 387,800 while insurance headcount fell to about 42,600; FY2025 consolidated revenue was $247.24B and net income $66.97B, after a FY2022 net loss of $22.76B.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
Berkshire's moat, as the filings describe it, is a set of regulated and scale franchises rather than a single brand: the 10-K explicitly calls the insurance segment's large statutory surplus a competitive advantage, and BHE's utilities and pipelines are described by customer counts, pipeline miles and megawatts that few competitors can replicate. The 10-K is equally explicit that these advantages must be defended, and it names technological change, disruptive innovation and rail-industry consolidation as the eroders, while BNSF's freight franchise faces Union Pacific plus trucks, barges and pipelines on price and service. The return record is real but softening: net income fell from $96.22B in FY2023 to $66.97B in FY2025 while total equity rose from $561.27B to $717.42B, so year-end-equity ROE fell from about 17.1% to about 9.3% (computed from the XBRL facts).
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q2 2026 10-Q shows operating earnings up, but reported net earnings were dominated by investment gains; GEICO underwriting margin deteriorated while BNSF, BHE and manufacturing/service/retailing posted higher revenue and earnings. Insurance investment income fell on lower interest rates, float and equity holdings grew, and Berkshire bought back about $4.5B in Q2. No numeric guidance appears; the 10-Q cites macro/tariff uncertainty, and the computed risk-factor diff adds a BNSF network-integration risk paragraph.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ✓ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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