QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006

MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC (MU)

As of 2026-11-02 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data

Conclusion: SHORT

Conviction high · base case -77% · downside -85% · upside -32%

The valuation uses FY2021–FY2026 normalized net income of $17.2B and normalized EBITDA of $27.9B (S2), against TTM net income of $84.97B (N15) and a market cap of $971.52B (N9). Peer P/E of 8.5–13.8x gives $146B–$237B; peer EV/EBITDA of 7.6–8.6x plus $33.2B net cash gives $245B–$273B. Taking the average of the two method midpoints ($191.8B and $259.2B) sets the base case at $225B, -76.8% from today. The downside case uses the low P/E of 8.5x ($146B, -85.0%), and the upside uses the highest EV/EBITDA of 22.5x on normalized EBITDA plus net cash ($661B, -32.0%). Even the upside is below today's price, so the market is extrapolating a cyclical peak, not normalized power.

Key numbers

• Share price: $858.67
• Market cap: $971.52B
• Latest financial period: FY Sep 2026 to Sep 3, 2026
• Revenue (FY Sep 2026): $133.19B
• EV / EBITDA (FY Sep 2026): 8.6x
• P/E (FY Sep 2026): 11.4x
• Price / book: 7.02x

The 15 boxes

1. ✓ 1. Long-form business notes

   Micron is a global semiconductor memory and storage maker selling DRAM, NAND, and NOR products through four business units in FY2026: Cloud Memory (CMBU), Core Data Center (CDBU), Mobile and Client (MCBU), and Automotive and Embedded (AEBU). Revenue is highly cyclical: it fell 49% from FY2022 to FY2023, then surged to $133.19B in FY2026, with DRAM revenue of $100.68B and NAND of $31.79B. Since FY2021, the company shifted from a Compute and Networking Business Unit structure to separate cloud/data center units, exited the consumer Crucial brand, and moved to advanced DRAM (1γ) and NAND (G9) nodes, with HBM becoming a key product.

2. ✓ 2. Competitive advantage

   Micron has scale and technology leadership in DRAM/NAND but no clear durable advantage: it faces intense competition from Samsung, SK hynix, Kioxia, Sandisk, and Chinese state-backed CXMT/YMTC, often on price. Financials show extreme cyclicality, with FY2023 operating loss of $5.75B and FY2026 operating income of $99.34B. Government support for competitors and China's 2023 CAC restriction add structural threats. Customer concentration (top 10 about half of revenue) and capital-intensive manufacturing further limit moat durability.

3. ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways

   Q3 FY2026 revenue reached $41,456M, up 74% sequentially and 346% year over year, with gross margin of 85% versus 38% in Q3 FY2025. Pricing was the dominant driver: DRAM and NAND ASPs jumped sharply on AI demand, and the company signed strategic customer agreements with expected $22B in cash and financial commitments. Cash and investments totaled $30.13B, FY2026 capex guidance is approximately $27B, and the board declared a $0.15 quarterly dividend; risk factors reiterate ASP volatility and gross-margin pressure.

4. ✓ 4. Corporate governance
5. ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
6. ✓ 6. Other significant filings
7. ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
8. ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
9. ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
10. ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
11. ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
12. ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
13. ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
14. ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts

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