QSQuantSignals Research/Scion Template
Try FST free

QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006

ALTRIA GROUP, INC. (MO)

As of 2026-11-02 · 11/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data

Conclusion: PASS

Conviction low · base case +1% · downside -20% · upside +92%

On TTM to Sep 30, 2026, Altria earned $8.10B net income to common (N15) with 1,663.44M shares (N5). At a fair 16x P/E (near the current 15.9x, N28), that is $129.6B market cap, or $77.9 per share, essentially today's $77.42 (N1), so no margin of safety. The downside case at BAT's 12.7x P/E is $61.9 (-20%), and the upside case at PM's 30.5x is $148.6 (+92%). The asymmetry is wide, but the base case does not clear the +30% long threshold, and the stock is near 52-week highs and not suppressed. I therefore pass.

Key numbers

The 15 boxes

  1. ✓ 1. Long-form business notes

    Altria's FY2025 reportable segments are smokeable products (cigarettes, cigars), oral tobacco products (MST, nicotine pouches) and e-vapor products. Cigarette shipment volume fell from 101.4 billion units in 2020 to 61.8 billion in 2025, with revenue declining from $26.15B to $23.28B over the same period. The newest 10-K adds NJOY e-vapor and a JTI heated-tobacco joint venture, while the oldest listed wine, PMCC and JUUL; Helix became wholly owned. FY2025 gross profit and operating cash flow were higher than FY2020 despite lower revenue.

  2. ○ 2. Competitive advantage

    Altria's core tobacco businesses hold premium brands (Marlboro, Copenhagen, Skoal) and many market-leader positions, but the moat is under pressure from discount competitors, illicit flavored e-vapor, and FDA/IP restrictions. Gross profit dollars grew from $13.02B in FY2020 to $14.54B in FY2025 even as revenue fell from $26.15B to $23.28B, indicating pricing power; however, FY2025 operating income declined to $9.90B partly due to recorded e-vapor impairments. Equity has been negative since FY2021, so conventional return on equity is not a meaningful measure of profitability, though net income remained positive at $6.93B in FY2025.

  3. ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways

    Altria's Q3 2026 net revenues rose 1.0% to $6,132m on higher smokeable revenues; adjusted diluted EPS rose 4.8% to $1.52 while reported diluted EPS rose 7.1% to $1.51. Cigarette volumes fell 4% and discount share increased to 34.1%, while nicotine pouch category share grew to 61.2% of oral tobacco. Nine-month reported earnings were inflated by a 2025 e-vapor goodwill impairment; adjusted nine-month EPS rose 5.1%. The 10-Q excerpts do not cover cash, inventory, or specific buyback amounts.

  4. ✓ 4. Corporate governance
  5. ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
  6. ✓ 6. Other significant filings
  7. ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
  8. ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
  9. ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
  10. ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
  11. ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
  12. ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
  13. ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
  14. ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts

Sign in free to QS Research to read every box: each point linked to the SEC filing it came from, the bull and bear case, and the comparables. QS Research powers the signals behind FST, our autonomous trading agent.