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QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006

METLIFE INC (MET)

As of 2026-11-02 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data

Conclusion: LONG

Conviction medium · base case +36% · downside -20% · upside +59%

Section 13's base of TTM net income $3.44B is the wrong denominator because it buries operating performance under non-operating investment/derivative losses; the correct base is TTM adjusted earnings of $6.39B (FY2025 $5.94B + H1 2026 $3.16B - H1 2025 $2.71B). On that base, MET trades at about 10x, below the lowest reported peer multiple of 10.4x (PRU), despite double-digit adjusted EPS growth and 16-17% adjusted ROE. Applying the peer median 13.7x to adjusted earnings gives fair value of $87.6B or $137.78 per share (+36%); an 8x downside gives $80.45 (-20%), and a 16x upside gives $160.91 (+59%). This meets the long rule, so I would be buying the GAAP-noise discount.

Key numbers

The 15 boxes

  1. ✓ 1. Long-form business notes

    MetLife is a global financial services company providing insurance, annuities, employee benefits and asset management. As of FY2025 it operates six segments: Group Benefits, RIS, Asia, Latin America, EMEA, and MIM, plus Corporate & Other run-off, after a Q4 2025 Strategic Reorganization. The FY2020 10-K had five segments (U.S., Asia, Latin America, EMEA, MetLife Holdings) and included Property & Casualty, which is absent from the latest structure. FY2025 XBRL facts list operating income of $6.14B and equity of $28.40B, with diluted shares at 673.3M.

  2. ✓ 2. Competitive advantage

    MetLife cites a trusted global brand, diversified and resilient business, and leadership in attractive markets as competitive strengths. The life insurance and asset management industries are highly competitive, with some rivals offering broader product lines, better pricing, or higher claims-paying ratings. Operating income has been steady around $6B in FY2022-FY2025, but equity has fallen from $74.6B to $28.4B over the same window and net income is uneven. The company recognizes that financial strength and ratings are key to distribution access and that rating downgrades could materially weaken its competitive position.

  3. ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways

    In Q2 2026, MetLife's net income available to common shareholders rose to $705 million from $698 million, and adjusted earnings available to common shareholders rose to $1.6 billion from $1.4 billion. Adjusted premiums, fees and other revenues grew 6% to $13.5 billion, led by Group Benefits underwriting and market factors. Segment results were mostly higher, and the company reported no material changes to risk factors.

  4. ✓ 4. Corporate governance
  5. ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
  6. ✓ 6. Other significant filings
  7. ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
  8. ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
  9. ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
  10. ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
  11. ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
  12. ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
  13. ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
  14. ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts

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