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QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006

JPMORGAN CHASE & CO (JPM)

As of 2026-11-02 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data

Conclusion: PASS

Conviction low · base case 0% · downside -21% · upside +10%

JPM is fairly valued, not cheap. Using TTM net income to common of $63.63B (N14) and peer P/E 11.3x-15.6x (S1) gives a $719B-$993B market cap, divided by 2,658.19M shares (N5) = $270-$374; at $341.16 (N1) that is +9.5% upside and -20.7% downside, with the base case at the current 14.3x TTM P/E of $341.16. The 2.42x price/book and 17.0% TTM ROE (N24,N22) mean the multiple already prices in superior profitability. Q3's EPS miss, slower buybacks and insider sales are not long-term structural problems but they remove near-term upside. I would pass and wait for a pullback toward $300 or below before building a long.

Key numbers

The 15 boxes

  1. ✓ 1. Long-form business notes

    JPMorganChase is a financial holding company with three reportable segments—Consumer & Community Banking, Commercial & Investment Bank, and Asset & Wealth Management—plus Corporate. At FY2025 it had $4.4T assets and $362.4B equity, up from $3.4T and $279.4B in FY2020. Revenue grew from $119.95B in FY2020 to $182.45B in FY2025, while diluted shares fell and buybacks rose. The FY2020 separate Commercial Banking segment is no longer separately reported in FY2025, and the U.S. branch footprint expanded from 38 to 48 states.

  2. ✓ 2. Competitive advantage

    JPMorganChase operates in a highly competitive environment, competing on quality, execution, innovation, reputation and price against banks, fintechs and internet firms. Regulation is extensive and asymmetric, with larger firms facing stricter oversight than some less-regulated competitors. FY2020-FY2025 data shows consistent revenue growth ($119.95B to $182.45B), net income ($27.41B to $55.68B) and equity ($279.35B to $362.44B), supporting scale and profitability, though the sources do not explicitly claim a durable competitive advantage.

  3. ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways

    The Q2 2026 10-Q excerpt covers regulatory capital and liquidity, not revenue/margins/buybacks. Broker-dealer net capital of $25.7B was well above the $8.1B minimum; non-U.S. banking subsidiaries held capital ratios above regulatory minimums and were MREL compliant. Average HQLA eligible cash declined 20% year over year to $280.3B but rose from Q1 2026. Required firm LCR minimum remains 100%.

  4. ✓ 4. Corporate governance
  5. ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
  6. ✓ 6. Other significant filings
  7. ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
  8. ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
  9. ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
  10. ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
  11. ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
  12. ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
  13. ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
  14. ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts

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