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QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006

Flutter Entertainment plc (FLUT)

As of 2026-11-02 · 11/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data

Conclusion: WATCH

Conviction low · base case -56% · downside -100% · upside +35%

Using Section 13's TTM revenue base ($17.16B, N9), I apply a 1.0x EV/Sales multiple—above low-end casino peers (0.57x–0.68x) but below FLUT's 1.50x—to get EV $17.16B; subtracting $10.45B net debt (N19,N20) leaves equity $6.71B, or $38.7/share, -56% from $87.77. Downside at 0.6x EV/Sales is ~$0 (-100%), while upside at DKNG's 1.81x is $20.6B equity/$118.8 per share (+35%). Thus the long rule fails because base<+30% and downside is worse than -25%; the short rule fails because upside>+25%. I therefore watch for Q3 evidence: forward adjusted EBITDA guidance of $2.655B is far above TTM EBITDA of $1.03B, so if US margins stabilize the stock could re-rate, but today the balance sheet and TTM profitability do not justify buying.

Key numbers

The 15 boxes

  1. ✓ 1. Long-form business notes

    Flutter Entertainment is the world's largest online sports betting and iGaming operator by revenue, reporting FY2025 revenue of $16,383M and 15.9M average monthly players. It generates revenue from sportsbook (53% of FY2025 revenue), iGaming (44%), and other products (3%), mainly online (88%) with 1,127 retail shops. The company operates through U.S. and International segments, with U.S. contributing 43% of FY2025 revenue. The business has expanded via acquisitions (Snai, NSX, full FanDuel ownership) and shifted its primary listing to NYSE in 2024.

  2. ○ 2. Competitive advantage

    Flutter has durable scale, brand, and network advantages: it is the world's largest online sports betting/iGaming operator by revenue, holds leading U.S. market shares, and benefits from the Flutter Edge, proprietary technology, and poker liquidity. However, its operating income has been volatile (FY2025 $36M on $16.38B revenue, net loss -$310M), showing advantages have not yet produced consistent high operating profitability. It faces competition from prediction markets, illegal operators, and new entrants.

  3. ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways

    For Q2 2026, Flutter reported total revenue of $4,326m (up from $4,187m in Q2 2025) but swung to an operating loss of $144m and a net loss of $296m, driven by a US revenue decline and higher costs. International revenue grew, but both segments' Adjusted EBITDA fell year over year. Cash and equivalents were $1,563m at June 30, 2026, with H1 2026 operating cash flow of $693m and about $251m of share repurchases in the half. No inventory or explicit guidance is disclosed in the provided sources; new tax risks include HMRC and Australian Tax Office assessments.

  4. ✓ 4. Corporate governance
  5. ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
  6. ✓ 6. Other significant filings
  7. ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
  8. ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
  9. ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
  10. ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
  11. ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
  12. ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
  13. ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
  14. ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts

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