QSQuantSignals Research/Scion Template
Try FST free

QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006

Evotec SE (EVO)

As of 2026-11-02 · 11/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data

Conclusion: WATCH

Conviction low · base case +33% · downside -29% · upside +217%

Evotec trades at a deep discount to CRO peers and has a potential recovery story, but the long rule fails because the downside case is worse than -25%. Using current FY2026 guidance midpoint revenue €590M (≈$658M) and a 0.75x EV/Sales multiple, base-case EV is $494M; adding net cash $223M gives market cap $717M, or $2.02/ADS (+33% vs $1.52). Downside at 0.25x on FY2026 lower-end €570M revenue gives EV $159M + net cash = $382M, or $1.07/ADS (-29%). Upside at 2.19x on upper-end €610M revenue gives EV $1,490M + net cash = $1,714M, or $4.82/ADS (+217%). The asymmetry is favorable but near-term losses and execution risk justify waiting for a better entry or clearer signs of stabilization.

Key numbers

The 15 boxes

  1. ✓ 1. Long-form business notes

    Evotec SE is a German life-science services company with two reporting segments: Discovery & Preclinical Development (67% of FY2025 third-party revenue) and Just-Evotec Biologics (33%). Revenue was €788.4M in FY2025, down from €797.0M in FY2024, and the company remained loss-making at the operating level (-€56.2M in FY2025 vs -€142.5M in FY2024). Its model is predominantly fee-for-service/FTE (79% in FY2025), with negligible milestones and no royalties yet. In late 2025 it sold its large-scale JEB Toulouse biologics manufacturing site to Sandoz for USD 350M upfront, shifting to an asset-lighter model and preserving long-term milestone/royalty upside.

  2. ✓ 2. Competitive advantage

    Evotec claims a differentiated integrated precision-medicine platform and an intensified continuous biologics manufacturing platform, but the sources show intense competition, customer concentration (43% of FY2025 revenue from three customers), and negative operating income in FY2023-FY2025, with revenue plateaued and gross profit falling. The recent margin and return history does not demonstrate a clear durable advantage.

  3. ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways

    Evotec's 6M 2026 results show a sharp revenue decline and operating losses, with Group revenue down 19.2% to €300.1m and adjusted EBITDA loss of €42.7m, driven by weak sales conversion and the non-repeat of the Q1 2025 Sandoz license. Preliminary 9M 2026 figures beat market expectations, and FY2026 guidance is reaffirmed at €570–610m revenue and -€70 to -€105m adjusted EBITDA. The Horizon restructuring is underway with €98.9m in H1 costs; liquidity remains at €465.6m. No buybacks are mentioned.

  4. ✓ 4. Corporate governance
  5. ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
  6. ✓ 6. Other significant filings
  7. ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
  8. ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
  9. ○ 9. Insider trading interpretation
  10. ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
  11. ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
  12. ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
  13. ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
  14. ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts

Sign in free to QS Research to read every box: each point linked to the SEC filing it came from, the bull and bear case, and the comparables. QS Research powers the signals behind FST, our autonomous trading agent.