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QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006

DECKERS OUTDOOR CORP (DECK)

As of 2026-11-02 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data

Conclusion: LONG

Conviction high · base case +33% · downside -16% · upside +45%

At $85.04 (N1), TTM EBITDA is $1.39B and cash is $1.21B with no debt tagged (N14,N20). A 10.0x EV/EBITDA multiple—below the 11.4x peer median and supported by HOKA/UGG brand strength—gives EV $13.90B, plus cash = $15.11B, /133.48M shares = $113.23, +33.2% from N1. Downside at 6.0x gives $8.34B EV + $1.21B = $9.55B /133.48M = $71.55, -15.9%, inside the long rule. Upside at 11.0x gives $15.29B + $1.21B = $16.50B /133.48M = $123.61, +45.3%. The market is over-penalizing a revenue guide cut and weak DTC comps while ignoring $1.25B TTM buybacks, 9.3% FCF yield, raised EPS guidance, and HOKA momentum.

Key numbers

The 15 boxes

  1. ✓ 1. Long-form business notes

    Deckers Outdoor Corp (DECK) as of FY2026 operates three reportable segments—HOKA, UGG, and Other (primarily Teva)—selling through wholesale and direct-to-consumer channels. Between FY2021 and FY2026, the company streamlined from five proprietary brands to three, divesting Sanuk and phasing out Koolaburra and AHNU. Revenue scaled from $2.55B in FY2021 to $5.47B in FY2026, operating income from $504.2M to $1.26B, and the DTC retail fleet expanded from 140 to 203 stores. Manufacturing is outsourced, predominantly to Vietnam and Indonesia.

  2. ✓ 2. Competitive advantage

    Deckers' identifiable competitive advantage rests on its brand portfolio—HOKA, UGG, and Teva—protected by trademarks and 201 patents as of March 31, 2026, but the 10-K describes the industry as highly competitive with larger rivals and lower entry barriers. FY2021–FY2026 financials show consistent revenue, gross profit, and operating income growth, suggesting brand strength and scale, though no cost, network, switching-cost, or license moat is described. Customer concentration is low (no customer over 10% of FY2026 net sales), but the company faces pricing and promotional pressure and premium discretionary demand risk.

  3. ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways

    For the quarter ended September 30, 2026, Deckers grew net sales 3.5% to $1,480,554, led by HOKA and UGG, while DTC and domestic sales lagged. Gross margin expanded to 60.5% partly on IEEPA tariff refunds that will not repeat at the same level. Operating income rose 19.3% to $389,456, cash fell sharply on buybacks and working capital, and no material new risk factors were disclosed.

  4. ✓ 4. Corporate governance
  5. ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
  6. ✓ 6. Other significant filings
  7. ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
  8. ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
  9. ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
  10. ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
  11. ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
  12. ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
  13. ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
  14. ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts

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