QSQuantSignals Research/Scion Template
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QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006

CoreWeave, Inc. (CRWV)

As of 2026-11-02 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data

Conclusion: WATCH

Conviction low · base case -35% · downside -42% · upside +29%

Section 13 gave only downside and upside; I set the base at 15.0x EV/EBITDA, below profitable ORCL (15.1x) and AMZN (14.5x) because CoreWeave has negative TTM EBIT (-$231M), negative FCF (-$13.65B), and net debt of $37.56B. Base equity = 15.0 x $3.76B EBITDA - ($43.10B debt - $5.54B cash) = $18.84B, or $34.19/share, 35% below the $52.77 price. Downside at 14.5x gives $30.78/share (-42%) and upside at 20.0x gives $68.31/share (+29%). The upside exceeds the +25% short-rule cap, so this is not a short despite the bearish base. The market already prices in distress with 15-16% bond yields and a 61.8% drawdown, but the balance sheet and capital intensity leave no margin of safety.

Key numbers

The 15 boxes

  1. ✓ 1. Long-form business notes

    CoreWeave operates an AI-native cloud platform, providing compute, storage, networking, and software through multi-year committed take-or-pay contracts and pay-as-you-go access. Revenue scaled from $229M in FY2023 to $1.9B in FY2024 and $5.1B in FY2025, while data center active power expanded from ~70MW to over 850MW. The company remained unprofitable on a net basis through FY2025, with FY2025 operating income negative after a positive FY2024. By end of FY2025, RPO was $60.7B and weighted-average contract duration about five years.

  2. ✓ 2. Competitive advantage

    The 10-K asserts CoreWeave has a competitive advantage from a purpose-built AI/accelerated compute platform (speed to market, proprietary software, TCO), but it competes primarily with hyperscalers and smaller cloud providers, and its own risk factors flag intense competition. Supplier and customer concentration are high: all GPUs are NVIDIA and three suppliers accounted for 23%, 20%, and 17% of FY2025 purchases. Financials do not yet show a durable advantage: revenue grew to $5.13B in FY2025, but operating income was -$46M and net income -$1.20B, with capex exceeding operating cash flow each year.

  3. ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways

    CoreWeave's Q2 2026 revenue grew 112% y/y to $2,575 million, but operating results worsened: Q2 operating loss was $49 million versus a $19 million operating profit a year earlier, and net loss was $626 million versus $290 million. Gross margin pressure came from sharply higher data center rent, utilities, and depreciation. The balance sheet shows $5.5 billion of cash and $15.6 billion of total liquidity at June 30, 2026, but debt and capital intensity rose sharply, and updated risk factors highlight power, supplier, customer-concentration, and debt risks.

  4. ✓ 4. Corporate governance
  5. ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
  6. ✓ 6. Other significant filings
  7. ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
  8. ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
  9. ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
  10. ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
  11. ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
  12. ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
  13. ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
  14. ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts

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