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QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006

Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK)

As of 2026-11-02 · 11/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data

Conclusion: WATCH

Conviction low · base case 0% · downside -36% · upside +30%

At $35.54, BIRK trades at 10.3x EV/EBITDA and 17.2x P/E on FY Sep-2025 TTM (N24, N26). Applying that same 10.3x to the TTM EBITDA of $739.8M yields EV $7.59B; subtracting $0.91B net debt gives equity $6.68B, exactly the current market cap, so the base case is 0% upside (N22, N6, N1). A 7x downside on $739.8M gives $22.73, -36%, and a 13x upside gives $46.37, +30%, so the long/short rules are not met. The newer Q3 FY2026 results and FY2026 guidance do not yet change the math enough to create a margin of safety. This is a watch: tariff/FX headwinds and buybacks may create mispricing later.

Key numbers

The 15 boxes

  1. ✓ 1. Long-form business notes

    BIRKENSTOCK is a vertically integrated German footwear maker whose FY2023 revenue came mainly from B2B (€887.957M) and DTC (€598.664M) across Americas, Europe, and APMA; DTC reached 40% of revenues. From FY2022 to FY2025, revenue rose from €1.24B to €2.10B, with FY2025 operating income of €549.5M. The company produces all footbeds in Germany and has expanded capacity and acquired its Australia distributor in October 2025. Its core business is built on iconic unisex silhouettes and engineered distribution.

  2. ✓ 2. Competitive advantage

    Birkenstock’s competitive advantage rests on its premium brand, orthopedic product design, German owned manufacturing, and active IP enforcement. The financial record from FY2022 to FY2025 shows revenue growing from €1.24B to €2.10B and operating income from €363.0M to €549.5M, with a dip in FY2023. Intense competition from established and new entrants and counterfeit products remain key threats, but the 20-F positions the company as a leading brand in a fragmented market.

  3. ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways

    Fiscal Q3 2026 (three months ended June 30, 2026) revenue rose 13% reported and 15% constant currency to €720 million, with double-digit constant-currency growth across all segments and both channels. Adjusted EBITDA increased 11% to €242 million but margin fell 70bps to 33.7% on FX and U.S. tariffs, while net profit fell 15% to €110 million because of non-recurring non-cash expenses tied to the ASR and refinancing. Management raised FY2026 guidance to 15% constant-currency revenue growth and Adjusted EBITDA of at least €710 million, completed a €230 million ASR, and ended the quarter with net leverage of 1.8x.

  4. ✓ 4. Corporate governance
  5. ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
  6. ✓ 6. Other significant filings
  7. ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
  8. ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
  9. ○ 9. Insider trading interpretation
  10. ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
  11. ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
  12. ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
  13. ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
  14. ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts

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