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QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006

Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK)

As of 2026-11-02 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data

Conclusion: PASS

Conviction low · base case 0% · downside -24% · upside +21%

The market has not mispriced ADSK: at N26 24.0x TTM EV/EBITDA and N28 33.2x TTM P/E, the stock already discounts secular revenue growth and heavy buybacks; using N14 EBITDA $2.24B x 24.0x = $53.76B EV, plus $0.67B net cash = $54.43B market cap / 209.0M shares = $260.43, essentially today's N1 $260.83. The downside case at PTC's 18.3x gives $40.99B EV + $0.67B net cash = $41.66B / 209.0M = $199.33, or -24%, and the upside at Bentley's 8.38x EV/Sales on N11 $7.79B revenue gives $65.28B EV + $0.67B = $65.95B / 209.0M = $315.55, or +21%; these brackets do not clear the long/short rule. The company has no durable moat, insider selling dominates, and MaintainX/sales-reorg risks are real, but TTM FCF and buybacks support the current quote. Pass.

Key numbers

The 15 boxes

  1. ✓ 1. Long-form business notes

    Autodesk is a global leader in 3D design, engineering, and entertainment software, selling across architecture, engineering, construction, manufacturing, and media/entertainment. Revenue is primarily recurring from subscriptions, cloud, and enterprise business agreements, with FY2026 revenue of $7.21B, gross profit of $6.56B, operating income of $1.58B, and operating cash flow of $2.45B. The company completed its transition from perpetual licenses/maintenance to subscription/cloud, and its channel mix shifted from 69% indirect in FY2021 to 37% indirect in FY2026, reducing reliance on TD Synnex.

  2. ✓ 2. Competitive advantage

    The sources support no clear durable competitive advantage: Autodesk operates in markets with limited entry barriers, faces large well-funded competitors, and says it must rely on engineering and marketing rather than enforceable IP. Its own risk disclosures flag dependence on AutoCAD-based products and piracy. The only positive operating evidence in the provided data is that revenue, gross profit, and operating income grew from FY2021 to FY2026, but no margin or return ratios are given.

  3. ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways

    Autodesk's Q2 FY2027 (ended July 31, 2026) revenue rose 16% to $2.05B and H1 rose 17% to $3.98B, driven by subscription revenue; recurring revenue was 97% of net revenue. The company held $4.36B in cash and generated $1.47B in H1 operating cash flow, while buybacks increased to $901M. Deferred revenue and RPO declined 9% and 10% from Q4 FY2025, and management expects most expense lines to increase in Q3 FY2027. The 10-Q risk factors highlight product/strategy, competition, and macro risks.

  4. ✓ 4. Corporate governance
  5. ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
  6. ✓ 6. Other significant filings
  7. ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
  8. ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
  9. ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
  10. ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
  11. ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
  12. ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
  13. ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
  14. ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts

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